贵金属周报：金银维持震荡，调整尚未结束-20251110

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Weekly Report [1][13][23][44] - Report Date: November 10, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Last week, precious metal prices were in a volatile consolidation. Although the US private employment data in October exceeded expectations, gold and silver were supported. Market sentiment was affected by two uncertainties: the ongoing US government shutdown and the US Supreme Court's questioning of the legality of Trump's comprehensive tariff collection [3][6]. - The AI revolution has accelerated the wave of layoffs. The number of Challenger job cuts in the US in October increased by 175.3% year-on-year, reaching the highest level in the same period in twenty years. The private data provider Revelio Labs reported that non-farm payrolls turned negative in October, with a decrease of 9,100 jobs [3][7]. - Fed officials' statements showed a divergence on monetary policy. This year's Fed voters were cautious due to the government shutdown, and the direction of a December rate cut was unclear. Next year's voters were more concerned about inflation risks, and monetary policy may remain in a tightening stance for a longer time [3][7]. - Currently, gold and silver prices are in a volatile state, waiting for more information for further guidance. In the short term, prices may rebound due to data fluctuations, but the rebound space is expected to be limited. The view that gold and silver prices are in a phased adjustment is maintained [3][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 921.26 | -0.66 | -0.07 | 136,660 | 178,255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T+D | 917.64 | -2.56 | -0.28 | 37,088 | 254,462 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 4007.80 | -5.60 | -0.14 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 11484 | 43 | 0.38 | 522,479 | 634,627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T+D | 11480 | 38 | 0.33 | 619,304 | 4,294,018 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 48.23 | -0.02 | -0.05 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The US government shutdown has broken the previous record and become the longest in history. Some Senate Democrats are ready to advance a package to end the shutdown, showing the most significant breakthrough in bipartisan negotiations in over a month [6]. - On November 5, the Supreme Court debated the legality of Trump's large - scale tariff collection. Most justices initially thought Trump overstepped his authority. The specific judgment time is undetermined [6]. - The Fed's officials have different views on monetary policy. Governor Milan called for more aggressive rate cuts, while Governor Cook said that each Fed meeting is real - time for monetary policy, and the risk on both sides of the Fed's dual mandate has increased [7]. - This week, attention should be paid to the US October CPI and PPI data, Fed speeches, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Supreme Court's "tariff ruling" on Trump [8] 3. Important Data Information - The US ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, significantly exceeding the expected 30,000, but overall labor demand is still slowing, and wage growth is stagnant [9]. - As of September this year, the number of job cuts announced by US companies has approached 950,000, the highest level in the same period since 2020, with the government sector being the hardest - hit area [9]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month and lower than the expected 49.5 [9]. - The US ISM services PMI in October rose 2.4 points to 52.4, reaching an eight - month high, far exceeding the expected 50.8 [9]. - The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 50, with new orders stagnant and exports declining for four consecutive months. German and French manufacturing PMIs remained in the contraction zone [10]. - The eurozone's October services PMI was 53%, better than the initial value, pushing the composite PMI to the highest level since May 2023. Germany's service industry recovered strongly, while France's contracted for 14 consecutive months [10]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration of platinum, palladium futures, and options on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [10]. - Indian gold ETFs have seen record capital inflows this year, with purchases approaching $3 billion, equivalent to about 26 tons of gold [10]. - China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of October were $3.343 trillion, and the gold reserves were 74.09 million ounces, increasing by 30,000 ounces month - on - month, the 12th consecutive month of increase [11] 4. Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, inventory changes, non - commercial net long positions, ETF holdings, price spreads, and the relationships between gold prices and other factors such as the US dollar, copper prices, inflation expectations, and interest rates [16][18][22][25][29][30][36][40][42]