棕榈油周报：等待MPOB报告落地，棕榈油承压运行-20251110

Report Title - Palm Oil Weekly Report [1] Report Date - November 10, 2025 [3] Core Views and Strategies - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 95 to close at 4,110 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.26%; palm oil 01 contract fell 104 to close at 8,660 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.19%; soybean oil 01 contract rose 56 to close at 8,184 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69%; rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 111 to close at 9,533 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.18%; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 1.01 to close at 49.63 cents/pound, an increase of 2.08%; ICE canola active contract rose 0.8 to close at 638.7 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 0.13% [4][7] - Palm oil continued its weakness, but the decline slowed. India's palm oil imports in October decreased month-on-month, confirming the weakening of export demand from the producing areas. According to the MPOB monthly report preview, Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to increase to 2.44 million tons at the end of October, exceeding expectations. As the negative factors are gradually digested, the decline of futures prices slowed. The Sino-Canadian trade relationship is still uncertain, the arrival of rapeseed is decreasing year-on-year, the supply of rapeseed oil is tightening, and its resistance to decline is relatively good [4][7] - Macroscopically, the US government shutdown continues, the release of key economic data is stagnant, the December interest rate cut path is still unclear, the US dollar index fluctuates, and oil prices fluctuate weakly. Fundamentally, the increase in production and weak export demand will lead to a significant increase in Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of October. Waiting for today's MPOB report for guidance. It is expected that palm oil will be under pressure in the short term, and as the negative factors are gradually traded, the downward momentum will weaken [4][12] Market Data | Contract | November 7 | October 31 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 49.63 | 48.62 | 1.01 | 2.08% | Cents/Pound | | BMD Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | 4110 | 4205 | -95 | -2.26% | Ringgit/Ton | | DCE Palm Oil | 8660 | 8764 | -104 | -1.19% | Yuan/Ton | | DCE Soybean Oil | 8184 | 8128 | 56 | 0.69% | Yuan/Ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Oil | 9533 | 9422 | 111 | 1.18% | Yuan/Ton | | Futures Spread between Soybean Oil and Palm Oil | -476 | -636 | 160 | | Yuan/Ton | | Futures Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Palm Oil | 873 | 658 | 215 | | Yuan/Ton | | Spot Price of Palm Oil (24 Degrees): Guangzhou, Guangdong | 8560 | 8700 | -140 | -1.61% | Yuan/Ton | | Spot Price of Grade 1 Soybean Oil: Rizhao | 8310 | 8320 | -10 | -0.12% | Yuan/Ton | | Spot Price of Rapeseed Oil (Imported Grade 3): Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu | 9800 | 9750 | 50 | 0.51% | Yuan/Ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - From November 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 5.12% month-on-month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.32% month-on-month, and the output increased by 6.80% month-on-month. Malaysia's palm oil output from October 1 - 31, 2025 is estimated to increase by 12.31% to 2.07 million tons, reaching an eight-year high [8] - According to different institutions' data, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from October 1 - 31, 2025 increased by 5.19%, 4.31%, and 26.54% respectively compared with the same period last month [8][9] - India's total edible oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year increased slightly by 0.3% year-on-year to 16 million tons; palm oil imports decreased by 16% year-on-year to 7.56 million tons, the lowest in five years; soybean oil imports increased by 61.6% year-on-year to a record 5.56 million tons; sunflower oil imports decreased by 17.7% year-on-year to 2.88 million tons, the lowest in three years [9] - The MPOB monthly report preview shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory climbed to a two-year high in October, driven by the output reaching a seven-year high, and its growth rate exceeded export demand. It is estimated that the palm oil inventory will soar by 3.5% in October, reaching 2.44 million tons, the highest since October 2023. The estimated output of crude palm oil in October is 1.94 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous month, reaching the highest level for that month since October 2018. Palm oil exports in October are expected to increase by 3.8%, reaching 1.48 million tons, increasing for the second consecutive month and reaching the highest level in nearly a year [10] - India's palm oil imports in October fell to a five-year low. The total imports of palm oil, including crude and refined products, were 750,000 tons, lower than 980,000 tons in September. As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.3246 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons from the previous week and an increase of 306,600 tons from the same period last year [11] - As of the week ending November 7, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 19,920 tons, compared with 16,140 tons in the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 1,200 tons, compared with 2,320 tons in the previous week [12] Industry News - Indonesia's statistics bureau announced that the country's exports of palm oil and refined palm oil in the first nine months were 17.58 million tons, a 11.62% increase compared with the same period last year [13] - Malaysia's estimated palm oil output in the 2025/26 fiscal year (October - September of the following year) is 19.2 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 18.7 - 19.7 million tons. The country's output of crude palm oil in the first nine months of this year reached 14.5 million tons, only a slight 0.3% increase year-on-year [13] - Indonesia's estimated palm oil output in the 2025/26 fiscal year is 51 million tons (estimated range between 46 - 56 million tons), 4% higher than the previous estimate but still lower than last year's level. The estimated palm oil output in the 2024/25 fiscal year was revised up to 53 million tons [13] - Thailand's estimated palm oil output in the 2024/25 fiscal year is 3.55 million tons (estimated range of 3.05 - 4.05 million tons), 1.1% lower than the previous estimate, reflecting a decline in yield per unit area. The country's palm oil output in August was 330,000 tons, a 14.6% decrease from the previous month. Although the recent output has decreased, the output from January - August this year reached 2.73 million tons, a 9.5% increase year-on-year [14] Related Charts - The report provides 22 charts, including the price trends of BMD Malaysian palm oil, CBOT US soybean oil, and the three major oils' futures price indices, as well as the inventory, output, and import profit trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil [15][16][17]