氧化铝周报：基本面利空主导，氧化铝弱势难改-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the alumina market are dominated by bearish factors, and the weak trend is expected to continue. Domestic imported ore supply is expected to increase, which may put pressure on ore prices and lead to a potential decline in the cost support for alumina. The supply side has a high level of operating capacity with only minor disruptions due to environmental protection, while the demand side is relatively rigid, and inventory continues to accumulate, indicating an expected surplus in the market. Attention should be paid to news of production cuts on the supply side [2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Transaction Data - The alumina futures (active) price decreased from 2793 yuan/ton on October 31, 2025, to 2783 yuan/ton on November 7, 2025, a drop of 10 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price fell from 2906 yuan/ton to 2873 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from 118 yuan/ton to 138 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price rose from 318 US dollars/ton to 320 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton. The import profit and loss decreased from 274.73 yuan/ton to 225.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48.9 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory increased by 16,487 tons to 253,654 tons, while the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. The prices of domestic bauxite in various regions and imported Guinea bauxite CIF remained stable [3] Market Review - The main alumina futures contract fell 0.36% last week, closing at 2783 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was reported at 2873 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton from the previous week. Bauxite prices remained stable due to a stalemate between supply shortages and downstream price - pressing. The start of operations of Guinea's NIMBAMININGCOMPANYS.A. may increase the supply of imported bauxite in the Chinese market. The alumina supply decreased slightly as a Hebei alumina enterprise's two roasting furnaces were under maintenance due to environmental protection. As of November 6, the total alumina production capacity in China was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 96.3 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.89%. The demand for alumina was stable as electrolytic aluminum enterprises operated steadily, but some downstream enterprises were hesitant to purchase and mainly executed long - term contracts. The alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 33,000 tons to 254,000 tons last Friday, while the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [4] Market Outlook - On the ore side, the start of shipments by Guinea's NIMBAMININGCOMPANYS.A. and the end of the rainy season in Guinea are expected to increase the surplus of bauxite in China. On the supply side, the operating capacity decreased by 400,000 tons to 96.3 million tons last week due to the maintenance of two roasting furnaces in a Hebei alumina enterprise. On the consumption side, the operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable, and enterprises mainly executed long - term contracts with low willingness to purchase spot goods. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 33,000 tons to 254,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, the expected increase in domestic imported ore supply may put pressure on ore prices and lead to a decline in the cost support for alumina. The supply side has a high operating capacity with only minor environmental - related maintenance, and the consumption side is rigid, with inventory continuing to accumulate and an expected market surplus. The alumina market is expected to remain weak [2][6] Industry News - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for alumina futures contracts starting from the settlement on November 7, 2025. The daily price limit was adjusted to 7%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 8%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 9%. The "Xingxian Yangjiagou Bauxite Joint Trial Operation Plan" was approved and filed, with a production capacity of 450,000 tons/year for the second system and a six - month joint trial operation period. Guinea's ELITE MINING company resumed bauxite shipments in mid - October 2025 after the rainy - season maintenance [7] Related Charts - The report includes charts showing the price trends of alumina futures, alumina spot, alumina spot premium, alumina inter - month spread, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][12][14][15][17][20][22][25]