中辉期货：螺纹钢早报-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel products (Rebar and Hot-rolled coil): Cautiously bullish [1][4][5] - Iron ore: Cautiously bearish [1][6][7] - Coke: Cautiously bullish [1][9][10] - Coking coal: Cautiously bullish [1][12][13] - Ferroalloys (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon): Cautiously bullish for silicomanganese; Cautiously bearish for ferrosilicon [1][16][17] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel products: Rebar shows a supply-demand weakness in the off - season with production and apparent demand decreasing. Hot - rolled coil has falling production and demand, and a slight inverse - seasonal increase in inventory. Both are under pressure from the falling hot metal production [1][4][5] - Iron ore: This week, hot metal production decreased significantly due to environmental control and steel mill maintenance. With steel mills reducing inventory and ports accumulating inventory, and large - scale arrival of foreign ores, the short - term ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][6][7] - Coke: The third round of price increase has been implemented, and the fourth round has started. Although coke enterprises' profits have slightly improved, they are still mostly in the loss state. The short - term replenishment enthusiasm is okay, and it runs in a range following the coking coal price [1][9][10] - Coking coal: Affected by safety inspections and environmental protection, the coal mine operating rate has decreased. With low inventory, sufficient pre - orders, and good sales, the short - term supply - demand pattern is healthy, and the price is expected to maintain a range [1][12][13] - Ferroalloys: For silicomanganese, supply is slightly down but still high, and demand is weakening with increasing inventory. For ferrosilicon, production area operating rate is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is increasing significantly [1][16][17] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel Products - Rebar: Production and apparent demand decreased month - on - month, inventory decreased with a weaker - than - seasonal decline. It is testing the support at 3000 and may fluctuate at low levels [1][4][5] - Hot - rolled coil: Production and apparent demand declined, inventory increased slightly against the season, showing inventory pressure. It runs in a medium - term range and may have short - term rebounds after continuous declines [1][4][5] Iron Ore - The hot metal production decreased significantly this week. Steel mills are reducing inventory, ports are accumulating inventory, and foreign ore arrivals have increased. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile [1][6][7] Coke - The third - round price increase has been completed, and the fourth round has started. Coke enterprises' profits have slightly improved but are still mostly in losses. The short - term replenishment enthusiasm is okay, and it follows the coking coal price [1][9][10] Coking Coal - Affected by safety inspections and environmental protection, the coal mine operating rate decreased. With low inventory, sufficient pre - orders, and good sales, the short - term price is expected to be range - bound [1][12][13] Ferroalloys - Silicomanganese: Supply in the production area decreased slightly but is still at a high level. Demand is weakening, inventory is increasing with a slower growth rate. The short - term cost has some support [1][16][17] - Ferrosilicon: The production area operating rate is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is increasing significantly. Although the cost has some support, the fundamental situation is loose, and it is advisable to short on rallies [1][16][17]