Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Bean Meal Weekly Report" [1] - Report date: November 10, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Views - Last week, CBOT soybean January contract rose 2.25 to close at 1117.25 cents per bushel, up 0.2%; bean meal 01 contract rose 37 to close at 3058 yuan per ton, up 1.22%; South China bean meal spot rose 20 to close at 3000 yuan per ton, up 0.67%; rapeseed meal 01 contract rose 151 to close at 2539 yuan per ton, up 6.32%; Guangxi rapeseed meal spot rose 120 to close at 2630 yuan per ton, up 4.78% [2][5] - Optimistic sentiment on US soybean export trade cooled, and the external market oscillated at a high level; the crop prospects in South America were relatively positive. Import of US soybeans retains a 10% additional tariff, with 10% extra cost compared to Brazilian soybeans. Currently, the CNF arrival prices of Brazilian and US soybeans are basically the same, and Brazilian soybeans are more cost - effective. Although old - crop soybeans are decreasing, a certain amount of US soybeans still need to be purchased. The China - Canada relationship has warmed up, but relevant agreements have not been reached. Import of Canadian rapeseed still maintains high tariffs, and the subsequent arrival volume of rapeseed will decrease. Coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is depleted, and rapeseed meal inventory continues to decline, with supply tightening and rapeseed meal rising sharply [2][5] - The weather conditions in the Brazilian production area are suitable for crop growth and development; the Argentine production area is relatively dry, which is conducive to accelerating the sowing progress. The crop prospects in South America are good. China resumed the qualification of 3 enterprises for soybean export to China on November 10. Wait for the USDA's crop yield report based on survey data this week. There is a gap in domestic soybean procurement for the December - January shipping period. It is expected that the Dalian bean meal will oscillate and adjust in the short term [2][9] Group 3: Market Data - CBOT soybean: On November 7, it was 1117.25 cents per bushel, up 2.25 from October 31, with a 0.20% increase [3] - CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans: On November 7, it was 486.00 dollars per ton, down 7.00 from October 31, with a - 1.42% decrease [3] - CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans: On November 7, it was 496.00 dollars per ton, up 3.00 from October 31, with a 0.61% increase [3] - Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk: On November 7, it was - 144.09 yuan per ton, up 62.42 from before [3] - DCE bean meal: On November 7, it was 3058.00 yuan per ton, up 37 from before, with a 1.22% increase [3] - CZCE rapeseed meal: On November 7, it was 2539.00 yuan per ton, up 151 from before, with a 6.32% increase [3] - Bean meal - rapeseed meal price difference: On November 7, it was 519.00 yuan per ton, down 114 from before [3] - Spot price in East China: On November 7, it was 3020.00 yuan per ton, up 40 from before, with a 1.34% increase [3] - Spot price in South China: On November 7, it was 3000.00 yuan per ton, up 20 from before, with a 0.67% increase [3] - Spot - futures price difference in South China: On November 7, it was - 58.00 yuan per ton, down 17 from before [3] Group 4: Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of November 2, 2025, the estimated US soybean harvest rate was 91%, with an estimated range of 88% - 94%, compared with 94% in the same period last year. StoneX lowered the US 2025 soybean yield per acre from 53.9 bushels to 53.6 bushels and expected the 2025 US soybean output to be 4.303 billion bushels, lower than the previous expectation of 4.326 billion bushels [6] - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.15 dollars per bushel, compared with 2.33 dollars per bushel in the previous week. The 48% protein bean meal spot price in Illinois was 322.48 dollars per short - ton, compared with 299.18 dollars per short - ton in the previous week. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 48.32 cents per pound, compared with 49.54 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 11.05 dollars per bushel, compared with 10.48 dollars per bushel in the previous week [6][7] - As of the week of November 1, 2025, the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 47.1%, compared with 34.4% in the previous week, 53.3% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 54.7%. In Parana state, the 2025/26 soybean planting area reached 79% of the expected area, an increase of 8 percentage points from last week. The soybean growth was generally good, with 93% of the evaluated areas in good condition. Brazil's soybean export volume in November is expected to reach 3.77 million tons, higher than 2.34 million tons in the same period last year [7] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentine farmers started sowing 2025/26 soybeans, and most farmland soil moisture was in the "best" state. It is expected that Argentina will harvest 4.85 million tons of soybeans this year, and farmers have sown 4.4% of the expected 17.6 million - hectare soybean area. The Argentine oilseed workers' union and the oil industry association reached a salary increase agreement, avoiding a strike that could paralyze soybean crushing activities [8] - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from last week and an increase of 1.6005 million tons from the same period last year; the bean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons from last week and an increase of 168,900 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 4.205 million tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from last week and a decrease of 1.208 million tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 9.629 million tons, a decrease of 102,000 tons from last week and an increase of 2.884 million tons from the same period last year [8] - As of the week of November 7, 2025, the national weekly average daily trading volume of bean meal was 83,460 tons, including 66,740 tons of spot trading and 16,720 tons of forward trading. The previous week's average daily total trading volume was 111,780 tons; the weekly average daily pick - up volume of bean meal was 180,420 tons, compared with 196,360 tons in the previous week; the main oil mills' crushing volume was 1.8057 million tons, compared with 2.2534 million tons in the previous week; the feed enterprises' bean meal inventory days were 7.75 days, compared with 8.02 days in the previous week [9] Group 5: Industry News - AgRural reported that as of October 30, the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 47% of the expected sowing area, lower than 54% in the same period last year, affected by irregular precipitation. The Cerrado savanna region in central Brazil, Goias state, Mato Grosso state, and the "Matopiba" region faced problems, and bad weather might lead to partial replanting [10] - The soybean output of the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) is expected to increase by 0.8% in the 2025/26 season, reaching 242.3 million tons, higher than 240.4 million tons in the previous year. The soybean planting area is expected to decrease by 0.4% or 300,000 hectares to 72 million hectares, mainly due to a 1.3 - million - hectare decrease in Argentina's planting area, partially offset by a 1 - million - hectare increase in Brazil's planting area. The expected more favorable climate pattern will drive the average yield to increase to 3.4 tons per hectare, higher than 3.32 tons per hectare in the 2024/25 season. The soybean export volume is expected to increase by 5 million tons [10] - StoneX kept the harvest estimates of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans and summer corn largely unchanged. The November soybean output estimate was slightly increased by 0.1% to 178.9 million tons, mainly due to an increase in the estimated planting area in Goias state. Irregular rainfall led to delayed sowing in some areas, and long - term forecasts showed favorable weather for the harvest [11] - It is expected that the 2025/26 Argentine soybean output will be 4.74 million tons, the same as the previous forecast. The dry weather at the end of October/early November alleviated concerns about excessive humidity in the southern Pampas region. The expected soybean planting area is 16.7 million hectares, slightly higher than the Rosario Grain Exchange's report of 16.4 million hectares but lower than the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's estimate of 17.6 million hectares. The USDA predicted Argentina's soybean output to be 4.85 million tons [11] - S&P Global Commodity Insights predicted that the average US soybean yield in 2025 would be 53.0 bushels per acre, the same as the October prediction, and the output would be 4.26 billion bushels, slightly lower than the previous estimate [12] - Imea reported that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state from October 27 - 31 was 502.44 reals per ton, compared with 467.42 reals per ton in the previous week. The state's bean meal price was 1,565.33 reals per ton, and the soybean oil price was 6,585.84 reals per ton [12] Group 6: Related Charts - The report includes charts such as the US soybean continuous contract trend, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, freight, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, management fund CBOT net position, bean meal main contract trend, regional bean meal spot price, bean meal M 1 - 5 monthly spread, Brazilian soybean production area precipitation and temperature, Argentine soybean production area precipitation and temperature, US soybean excellent rate, US soybean cumulative sales volume, US soybean weekly net sales volume, US soybean weekly export volume, US oil mill crushing profit, bean meal weekly average daily trading volume, bean meal weekly average daily pick - up volume, port soybean inventory, oil mill soybean inventory, oil mill weekly crushing volume, oil mill unexecuted contracts, oil mill bean meal inventory, and feed enterprise bean meal inventory days [13][14][15][17][19][20][22][24][30][32][34][36][38][42][44]
豆粕周报：关注美豆采购进展，连粕震荡调整-20251110
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-11-10 02:51