新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-10）-20251110

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillatory adjustment [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillatory [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillatory [2] - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda ash: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weakly oscillatory [6] - Pulp: Bottom rebound [6] - Offset paper: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillatory [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillatory [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillatory [7] - Live pigs: Oscillatory and bullish [7] - Rubber: Oscillatory [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Oscillatory [9] - MEG: Wide-range oscillation [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by macro and fundamental factors, with the main line of "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" for iron ore; coal and coke are supported by fundamentals but face the core contradiction of low steel mill profits; rolled steel and rebar need to rely on production reduction and anti-"involution" policies to stop the decline [2] - The financial market has different trends in stock index futures/options, treasury bonds, and precious metals. The stock market is affected by factors such as policy effects and capital flows, and the bond market shows a short-term consolidation and medium-term upward trend. Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks [3][4] - The light industry products market has different trends in logs, pulp, and paper products. Logs face supply pressure and weakening demand, pulp is expected to rebound from the bottom, and double-offset paper is expected to oscillate [6] - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as policy adjustments, weather conditions, and supply and demand relationships. The prices of oils and fats are expected to operate in a range, and the prices of livestock products are expected to be oscillatory and bullish [6][7] - The soft commodities and polyester market are affected by factors such as weather, production capacity, and cost. The prices of rubber are expected to oscillate widely, and the prices of polyester products are expected to oscillate or wait and see [9] Summary by Directory Black Industry - Iron ore: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China reached 33.141 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 59%. The iron water continued to decline from a high level, and the port inventory continued to increase. The pattern of oversupply was difficult to reverse [2] - Coking coal and coke: The overseas Fed's interest rate cut was implemented, and the domestic 14th Five-Year Plan exceeded market expectations. The coking coal raw coal inventory dropped to the lowest level of the year, and the supply of coking coal in the main producing areas was continuously tight. The market's core contradiction was the extremely low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The macro good news landed, and the black price returned to the fundamentals. The static valuation of rebar was low, and the steel price stop falling depended on the implementation of production reduction and anti-"involution" policies [2] - Glass: The news of the coal-to-gas conversion and cold repair of production lines in Shahe fermented. The real estate completion continued to decline during the peak season, and the glass demand was weak. The enterprise inventory continued to increase [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index recorded -0.31%, the SSE 50 index recorded -0.21%, the CSI 500 index recorded -0.24%, and the CSI 1000 index recorded -0.13%. The refined chemical and chemical raw material sectors showed net capital inflows, while the software and Internet sectors showed net capital outflows [2] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond due increased by 1bp, and the central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 141.7 billion yuan. The net withdrawal of funds on the same day was 213.4 billion yuan. The bond market showed a short-term consolidation and medium-term upward trend [4] - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. It is affected by factors such as currency attributes, financial attributes, and geopolitical risks. Silver is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] Light Industry Products - Logs: The average daily shipment volume of logs at ports decreased, and the demand was expected to weaken. The import volume increased seasonally, and the port inventory was expected to continue to accumulate. The spot market price was stable, and the market was waiting and watching [6] - Pulp: The spot market price was strong, but the cost support for the pulp price weakened. The papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the demand was poor. The pulp price was expected to rebound from the bottom [6] - Double-offset paper: The spot market price was stable. The new production capacity in South China was increasing, and the supply pressure remained. The market was expected to be cautious, and the price was expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - Oils and fats: The US government shutdown led to a lack of official data guidance. The palm oil production in Malaysia was expected to increase, and the inventory continued to rise. The domestic soybean supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The oil prices were expected to operate in a range [6] - Meals: The adjustment of China's tariff policy on the US improved the short-term market sentiment, but the fundamentals were still cautious. The soybean harvest in the US was completed, and the soybean planting rate in Brazil was lower than last year and the average. The domestic oil mill operating rate recovered to a high level, and the soybean meal supply increased [6] - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs decreased slightly. Retail investors had a bullish expectation and held back sales. The slaughtering enterprise's purchase average weight increased slightly. The settlement price of live pigs increased, and the market was expected to be oscillatory and bullish [7] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The raw material supply in Yunnan was stable, and the acquisition price decreased slightly. The glue production in Hainan was lower than expected. The cup glue price in Thailand continued to rise. The demand side's production capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The rubber price was expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX: The production increase atmosphere continued, and the oil price rebound was still weak. The short-term supply of PX increased, and the short-term PXN spread had limited room for further rebound [9] - PTA: The medium- and long-term oil price was expected to be weak, and the cost support was weakened. The PTA supply decreased marginally, but there were new device trials. The overall supply and demand improved, but the cost side was uncertain [9] - MEG: The arrival volume was expected to continue to rise, and the domestic production load recovered. The overall supply was at a high level. The demand side's polyester load was temporarily resilient, but there were concerns in the future. The future supply and demand were expected to be in surplus [9] - PR: The raw material support was limited, and the supply and demand pattern remained stalemate. The polyester bottle chip market was likely to maintain a narrow-range oscillation [9] - PF: The demand side performance was average, but the PX - PTA end had strong bottom support. The polyester staple fiber market was expected to oscillate narrowly [9]