短期内股指维持区间震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, stock indices will maintain range - bound oscillations. Currently, the market is in a stage where the rhythm of policy - driven positive expectations and the rhythm of profit - taking by funds are in a tug - of - war. In the medium to long term, policy - driven positive expectations and the trend of net capital inflows into the stock market provide strong support for stock indices. However, in November, the incremental signals from the policy side have weakened, and although external risk factors have eased, uncertainties still remain, limiting the upward driving force of stock indices. With the significant increase in the valuation of stocks, the demand for profit - taking by profitable funds has risen, and there is still a need for technical consolidation of stock indices [3][9][84]. - The implied volatility of ETF options and stock index options is at a relatively low level. Considering that the stock indices are expected to rise in the medium to long term, it is advisable to maintain a mild bullish stance through bull spreads or ratio spreads [4][85]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Stock Index Trends Last week, all stock indices showed a trend of hitting bottom and then rebounding. The market is in a stage of game between the fermentation of policy - driven positive expectations and profit - taking by funds, with multiple long and short factors intertwined, leading to repeated oscillations of stock indices. In the medium to long term, policy - driven positive expectations and the trend of net capital inflows into the stock market provide strong support for stock indices. However, in November, the incremental signals from the policy side have weakened, and although external risk factors have eased, uncertainties still remain, limiting the upward driving force of stock indices. With the significant increase in the valuation of stocks, the demand for profit - taking by profitable funds has risen, and there is still a need for technical consolidation of stock indices [9]. 3.1.2 Option Price Trends This week, the 50ETF had a weekly increase of 0.82%, closing at 3.186; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly increase of 0.82%, closing at 4.795; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) had a weekly increase of 0.71%, closing at 4.941; the CSI 300 Index had a weekly increase of 0.82%, closing at 4678.79; the CSI 1000 Index had a weekly increase of 0.47%, closing at 7541.88; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) had a weekly increase of 0.05%, closing at 7.440; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) had a weekly decrease of 0.03%, closing at 2.968; the GEM ETF had a weekly increase of 0.60%, closing at 3.185; the Shenzhen 100ETF had a weekly increase of 0.03%, closing at 3.567; the SSE 50 Index had a weekly increase of 0.89%, closing at 3038.35; the STAR 50ETF had a weekly decrease of 0.07%, closing at 1.49; the E Fund STAR 50ETF had a weekly increase of 0.00%, closing at 1.44 [16]. 3.1.3 Futures Basis and Monthly Spreads of Stock Index Futures The basis of the four stock index futures varieties: The basis of IF and IH is at a normal quantile level, while IM and IC show a state of significant backwardation in the far - month futures. The inter - period spreads between the current quarter and the next quarter of IC and IM futures have rebounded, indicating that the market's short - term risk appetite for IC and IM has increased [22]. 3.2 Option Indicators 3.2.1 PCR Indicators The trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 121.96, and the previous trading day's trading volume PCR was 102.40; the open - interest PCR was 93.44, and the previous trading day's open - interest PCR was 94.38. Similar data for other ETF and index options are also provided in the report [36]. 3.2.2 Implied Volatility The implied volatility of at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in November 2025 was 12.35%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 12.16%. Similar data for other ETF and index options are also provided in the report [56]. 3.3 Conclusion - Stock index futures: Short - term, stock indices will maintain range - bound oscillations. The current market situation and influencing factors are the same as described in the core viewpoints [84]. - ETF options and stock index options: The implied volatility is at a relatively low level. Considering the medium - to - long - term upward trend of stock indices, maintain a mild bullish stance through bull spreads or ratio spreads [85].