产量表需双降，期价震荡下跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has shifted towards fundamentals, with persistent weak demand. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust mainly [1][5]. - Macroeconomically, during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, efforts will be made to implement a package of debt - resolution plans, establish a long - term regulatory system for local government debt, and reform local financing platforms to optimize the debt structure [1][4][9]. - Fundamentally, last week's industrial data was weak. The output of the five major steel products decreased month - on - month, apparent demand declined, and inventory decreased but the decline rate shrank. Specifically, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly month - on - month, increasing off - season pressure; the hot - rolled coil inventory rebounded, and supply pressure remained [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3034 | -72 | -2.32 | 5791624 | 2824366 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3245 | -63 | -1.90 | 2193217 | 1365348 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 760.5 | -39.5 | -4.94 | 1655900 | 537495 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1270.0 | -16.0 | -1.24 | 5683778 | 984216 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1756.5 | -20.5 | -1.15 | 108828 | 49120 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Steel futures fluctuated and declined last week. Fundamentally, steel output and apparent demand both decreased, putting pressure on the spot market and causing the futures price to fall. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2940 (-40) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3190 (-40) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3260 (-70) yuan/ton [4]. - Macroeconomically, during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, a series of debt - management measures will be implemented [4]. - Industrially, last week, rebar output was 2090000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40000 tons; apparent demand was 2190000 tons, a decrease of 140000 tons; factory inventory was 1670000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons; social inventory was 4260000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons; total inventory was 5930000 tons, a decrease of 100000 tons. Hot - rolled coil output was 3180000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons; factory inventory was 770000 tons, a decrease of 2000 tons; social inventory was 3330000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons; total inventory was 4100000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons; apparent demand was 3140000 tons, a decrease of 180000 tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, China will implement debt - management measures for local governments [1][4][9]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the China - US trade agreement might be signed as early as this week, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to promote healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China - US relations [9]. - The global manufacturing PMI in October announced by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on November 6 was the same as last month, indicating a slow recovery of the global economy [9]. 3.4 Related Charts - There are multiple charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, spot price differences, factory and social inventories, output, apparent consumption, etc. over different time periods from 2021 to 2025 [8][10][12][14][16][18][21][22][24][27][29][32][34][35][37]