橡胶板块2025年11月第1周报-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market is influenced by both policy drivers and supply - demand fundamentals. Policy - driven short - term fluctuations are unsustainable, while the continuous looseness on the supply side will be the main factor dominating the market [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rubber Downstream Consumption - Rubber downstream consumption shows a significant characteristic of "stronger in the long - term, weaker in the short - term". As of November 2025, the CSI 1000 Index has risen for 7 consecutive months, with a year - on - year increase of 45.1%. The European automotive industry index has increased year - on - year for 5 consecutive months but remains negative in absolute value. The electricity consumption of the domestic rubber and plastics industry has reached a new high since 2024, but the year - on - year increase in tire production is only 1.5%, indicating that terminal demand has not fully recovered [2][14] 3.2 Policy Influence - Policy expectations have become an important factor driving the rubber market. After the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers issued an "anti - involution" initiative in May 2025, the correlation between rubber and policy - related commodities soared from less than 32% to over 80%. However, the policy - driven rise in rubber on October 29 was short - lived, showing the uncertainty of policy drivers [2] 3.3 Supply Situation 3.3.1 Natural Rubber - From January 2025 to March 2026 is the supply peak season for natural rubber. In November 2025, the daily average rainfall in Thailand decreased for 2 consecutive months, which is conducive to rubber tapping. In September 2025, the total natural rubber output of Southeast Asian major producing countries was 1.102 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. In the past 10 months, there have been 9 months of year - on - year increases [29] 3.3.2 Synthetic Rubber - In September 2025, the domestic butadiene apparent demand decreased to 494,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.2%, with year - on - year increases in the past 12 months. The domestic cis - butadiene rubber apparent demand increased to 131,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.9%, with year - on - year increases in 10 out of the past 11 months [29] 3.4 Inventory and Import - As of Thursday this week, the total natural rubber futures warehouse receipt inventory was 119,100 tons, a decrease of 2,570 tons from the previous period. The total 20 - rubber futures warehouse receipt inventory was 48,586 tons, an increase of 3,729 tons from the previous period. As of the week ending October 31, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 12,200 tons to 436,300 tons, a rise of 2.88% [30][31] 3.5 Market Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the RU main 01 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high of 15,085 points; hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the NR main 01 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high of 12,145 points; conduct a small - scale short - selling trial on the BR main 01 contract and set a stop - loss at the recent high of 10,310 points [4] - Arbitrage: Hold the RU2601 - NR2601 (1 - to - 1) contract at + 2,945 points and raise the stop - loss to the recent low of + 2,915 points [4] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] 3.6 Other Market Data - In September 2025, the domestic mixed rubber supply scale was 6.69 times that of standard rubber, compared with 4.10 times in the same period last year. Global automobile sales increased marginally for 8 consecutive months. The preferential amount in the domestic passenger car market in September was 27,000 yuan per vehicle. In October 2025, the domestic manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 points, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2% [41][49] - As of September 2025, the net import scale of cis - butadiene rubber was 17,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,300 tons. The output supply scale of cis - butadiene rubber was 289,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.0%. The domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory scale was 38,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [52][54] - As of last Friday, the operating rate of the domestic all - steel tire production line increased to 65.5%, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, with the increase rate expanding for 2 consecutive weeks. The finished product inventory of the all - steel tire production line remained at 39 days, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%, with marginal inventory accumulation for 4 consecutive weeks. The operating rate of the domestic semi - steel tire production line increased to 73.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 7.2%, with the decrease rate expanding for 2 consecutive weeks. The finished product inventory of the semi - steel tire production line remained at 45 days, a year - on - year increase of 19.6%, with the increase rate narrowing for 24 consecutive weeks and marginal inventory reduction [71]