中辉期货豆粕日报-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall: Different futures varieties have distinct market outlooks. Some lack upward drivers, some are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, and some are affected by international trade policies and weather conditions [1]. - Specific to each variety: - Bean meal: Lacks continuous upward drivers. The Brazilian rainfall forecast is good, and the US - China trade negotiation results regarding soybean import tariffs are still unresolved. Spot oil mills have a reduced sales pressure and a price - holding mentality. Caution is needed when chasing long positions [1][3]. - Rapeseed meal: Follow the trend of bean meal. High port inventory and the off - season of downstream consumption put pressure on the market, but the unresolved Sino - Canadian trade issue supports the far - month contracts. Recent statements from Canada have cooled the market's expectation of tariff improvement. The rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited [1][5]. - Palm oil: Enters a phase of weakening supply - demand. Malaysian palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in October and November. Import profit inversion may lead to insufficient imports in December and January, and the price is in low - level consolidation [1][7]. - Soybean oil: Short - term supply is sufficient, with domestic inventory higher than the five - year average. The US - China tariff issue has not fully resolved the cost problem of US soybean imports. There is a lack of strong upward drivers, and the recent increase is regarded as a short - term rebound [1]. - Rapeseed oil: The oil mill's operating rate is low, and there is a mentality of hoarding and price - holding in the market. It has entered the consumption peak season, but the spot market has high prices with few transactions. The cooling expectation of Sino - Canadian trade relations has led to a stop - falling rebound, but the short - term weakness has not been completely reversed [1]. - Cotton: The supply is pressured by the increase in cotton output from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries. Although Brazil is accelerating exports, India's MSP provides some support for international cotton prices. The domestic new cotton harvest is almost completed, with commercial inventory exceeding the same - period level. Downstream demand is weak, but the sales progress is fast, and short - term low - buying opportunities can be considered [1][11]. - Red dates: The market has a large - scale harvest, and the new - season output is becoming more certain. High - inventory old dates and limited downstream acceptance of new products may lead to a weakening and volatile market. Short - selling operations should be carried out carefully according to the purchase price and progress [1][14]. - Live pigs: The supply pressure in Q4 remains high. The market should be vigilant about the short - term rebound risk of the 01 contract. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for near - month contracts. Attention can be paid to the 03 contract in the off - season and the reverse - spread arbitrage opportunities in the far - month contracts [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bean Meal - Market data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3015 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3097.71 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 114.2989 yuan/ton, down 8.69 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory situation: As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 962.9 million tons, a decrease of 10.20 million tons from the previous week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 710.79 million tons, a decrease of 40.50 million tons (5.39%); the bean meal inventory was 115.3 million tons, an increase of 9.84 million tons (9.33%) [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Market data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2497 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2626.84 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 353.023 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.39 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory situation: As of October 31, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.71 million tons, unchanged from the previous week; the unexecuted contract was 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from the previous week [5]. Palm Oil - Market data: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8660 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day. The national average price was 8640 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The import cost was 8857 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [6]. - Inventory situation: As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 59.28 million tons, a decrease of 1.43 million tons (2.36%) from the previous week [7]. Cotton - Market data: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13580 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14859 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The national cotton commercial inventory was 284.78 million tons, an increase of 52 million tons [8]. - International situation: In the US, 73 million tons of new cotton have been inspected, with a progress of about 25%. In India, the daily new - cotton listing volume is about 14,000 tons. In Pakistan, the new - cotton listing volume as of the end of October was 688,000 tons, a 3% year - on - year increase. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 63.67%, slower than last year [9]. - Domestic situation: The new - cotton picking progress is 95.3%, the inspection volume exceeds 2.4 million tons, the delivery progress is 90.4%, and the sales progress is 18.3%. The national commercial inventory has increased, and the downstream demand is weak, but the export is expected to stabilize [10]. Red Dates - Market data: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 9590 yuan/ton, down 1.18% from the previous day. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9541 tons, an increase of 193 tons from the previous week [12]. - Production area situation: In Xinjiang, the red dates have started to be harvested on a large scale. The acquisition prices in different regions are relatively stable. The market's expectation of a new - season production reduction has been adjusted [14]. Live Pigs - Market data: The futures price of the main contract (1h2601) closed at 11865 yuan/ton, down 0.63% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 12010 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The national sample enterprises' monthly live - pig inventory was 3844.62 million tons, an increase of 5.61 million tons (0.15%); the monthly live - pig slaughter volume was 11.9653 million heads, an increase of 1.2677 million heads (11.85%) [15]. - Supply and demand situation: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in November has decreased, but the overall slaughter pressure may still be high. In the medium term, the live - pig slaughter volume in Q1 2026 is expected to increase linearly. In the long term, the capacity reduction of breeding sows is not obvious. The downstream demand is gradually stabilizing [16][17].