2025W45房地产周报：香港楼市回暖背后，哪些因素在起作用？-20251110

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry [6] Core Insights - The Hong Kong real estate market is showing signs of recovery, driven by a combination of policy changes and improved financial conditions [16][20] - The necessary conditions for stabilization in the Hong Kong market include the full withdrawal of restrictive measures by February 2024 and a decrease in transaction costs, which has been observed after 15 months of market adjustment [20] - The sufficient conditions for recovery involve a significant drop in mortgage rates, with the 1-month HIBOR falling from 3.98% to 0.57%, leading to mortgage rates around 2% [24] - The expectation of improved market conditions is supported by the "rent-to-mortgage" theory, which has reactivated the financial attributes of the Hong Kong real estate market [27] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The report highlights that the Hong Kong private residential price index has risen for four consecutive months, with a 1.32% month-on-month increase in September [16] - The rental index has also increased for ten consecutive months, reaching a historical high [16] 2. Stock Market and Credit Bonds - The A-share real estate sector underperformed the market with a decline of 0.22%, while the Hong Kong real estate sector outperformed with an increase of 1.87% [31][43] - The total issuance of real estate credit bonds reached 72.50 billion, with a net financing amount of -15.20 billion [31] 3. REITs Market - The REITs index decreased by 0.55%, with the property REITs index down by 1.00% [52] - The total transaction volume for REITs was 14.17 billion, reflecting a 7.46% decrease [52] 4. Real Estate Transactions - New and second-hand housing transaction areas saw year-on-year declines of 26.88% and 21.63%, respectively [5] - The report indicates a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 15.01% for new homes and an increase of 3.30% for second-hand homes [5] 5. Land Market - The report notes an increase in land supply and transaction area across 100 cities, with a 3.77% increase in supply and a 19.15% increase in transaction area [4]