玻璃：停产计划落地预计震荡偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry is to expect a weak and volatile trend [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass futures market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling last week, with the weekly line closing as a doji with an upper shadow. The short - term technical signals were favorable during the week but were suppressed by the fundamental reality. With the implementation of the production line shutdown plan, the futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. In the future, there is no strong positive expectation in the short and medium - term. The replenishment sentiment of the mid - and downstream is low at the end of the year, and the demand may continue to weaken. Considering the relatively high inventory and the delivery pressure in the near - month contracts, it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options on the glass 01 contract until expiration or look for short - selling opportunities when the 01 contract briefly rallies, with a reference range of 1140 - 1150 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Investment Strategy - The main logic is that the glass futures price was affected by the production line shutdown and fundamental suppression last week. In the future, due to weak demand and high inventory, the market is expected to be weak and volatile. The recommended operations are to hold out - of - the - money call options on the glass 01 contract until expiration or short - sell on rallies [3]. 3.2 Market Review - Price - Spot price: As of November 7, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1140 yuan/ton (+20) in Central China, and 1240 yuan/ton (-10) in East China. - Futures price: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1091 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan for the week [11]. 3.3 Market Review - Spread - Soda - glass spread: As of November 7, the soda futures price was 1210 yuan, the glass futures price was 1091 yuan, and the spread between them was 119 yuan/ton (-23). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was 49 yuan/ton (+62). - Contract spread: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 spread was - 134 yuan/ton (+15) [12][17]. 3.4 Profit - Natural gas process: The cost was 1574 yuan/ton (-2), and the gross profit was - 334 yuan/ton (-8). - Coal - gas process: The cost was 1211 yuan/ton (+24), and the gross profit was - 81 yuan/ton (-24). - Petroleum coke process: The cost was 1092 yuan/ton (+2), and the gross profit was 48 yuan/ton (+18). - Fuel prices: On November 7, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of US 3% sulfur shot coke was 170 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 672 yuan/ton [20]. 3.5 Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 157,505 tons/day (-2650), with 222 production lines in operation. There were multiple production line changes including shutdowns, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions [22][24]. 3.6 Inventory - As of November 7, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 6313.6 million weight boxes (-265.4). Inventories in different regions showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing [27]. 3.7 Deep - processing - On November 6, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 114% (unchanged). On November 7, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.8% (+0.5%). In mid - October, the available order days for glass deep - processing were 10.4 days (-0.1) [28]. 3.8 Demand - Automobile - In September, China's automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 461,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 480,000 vehicles. Sales were 3.226 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 369,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 417,000 vehicles. In September, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 1.296 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 57.8% [39]. 3.9 Demand - Real Estate - In September, China's real estate completion area was 34.3534 million m² (unchanged year - on - year), new construction area was 55.9831 million m² (-15% year - on - year), construction area was 54.7081 million m² (-16% year - on - year), and commercial housing sales area was 85.3087 million m² (-12% year - on - year). From October 27 to November 2, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.03 million m², a month - on - month increase of 2% and a year - on - year decrease of 38%. In September, the real estate development investment was 739.652 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21% [45]. 3.10 Cost - Soda Ash - Price - As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were: 1325 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China. Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1210 yuan/ton (-15), and the basis of the soda ash Central China 01 contract was 90 yuan/ton (+15) [47][52]. 3.11 Cost - Soda Ash - Profit - As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - alkali method for soda ash enterprises was 1359 yuan/ton (+7), and the gross profit was - 44 yuan/ton (-2); the cost of the combined production method was 1791 yuan/ton (-1), and the gross profit was - 174 yuan/ton (-9). Other prices included the Hubei synthetic ammonia market price of 2250 yuan/ton (+65) and the Xuzhou Fengcheng ammonium chloride wet ammonium ex - factory price of 300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [55][56]. 3.12 Cost - Soda Ash - Inventory - Last weekend, the exchange's soda ash warehouse receipts were 8314 pieces (-237). As of September 25, the total national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 171.42 million tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.22 million tons), including 89.96 million tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 1.32 million tons) and 81.46 million tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 million tons). Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 74.68 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1.08 million tons), including 41.48 million tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 million tons) and 33.2 million tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 million tons) [68][69]. 3.13 Cost - Soda Ash - Apparent Demand - Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 40.16 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.63 million tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 33.30 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.32 million tons. The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 98.36%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.65%. In October, the inventory of sample float glass factories was equivalent to 21.6 days of soda ash consumption [73][76].