合成橡胶：短期震荡，基本面仍有压力

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of synthetic rubber is volatile, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The decline of butadiene prices drags down the price of synthetic rubber, and the macro - driving force weakens, resulting in the weak operation of butadiene rubber. However, there may be a phased improvement in the supply - demand pattern of butadiene rubber in mid - to late November [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Futures Market - The trading volume of the butadiene rubber futures main contract was 106,318 lots, with a decrease of 21,826 lots compared to the previous day. The closing price of the day - session was 10,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton from the previous day. The open interest was 85,686 lots, an increase of 1,745 lots. The trading volume was 544.281 million yuan, a decrease of 108.999 million yuan [1][2]. - The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - futures main contract was 160, a decrease of 5 compared to the previous day; the monthly spread of BR12 - BR01 was 65, a decrease of 15 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - Butadiene rubber prices: North China (private) was 10,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; East China (private) was 10,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; South China (private) was 10,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong market price (delivery product) was 10,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Styrene - butadiene rubber prices: Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) was 10,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1712) was 9,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Butadiene prices: The mainstream price in Jiangsu was 6,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in Shandong was 7,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - The butadiene rubber operating rate was 68.4798%, an increase of 1.74 percentage points compared to the previous day [1]. - As of November 5, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 29,300 tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.15% [2]. - In the period from October 23 - 29, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased, with a month - on - month increase of 14.23%. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly by 1.47% month - on - month, and the inventory of sample ports increased significantly by 30.08% month - on - month [4]. 3.4 Industry News - In the short term, the decline of butadiene rubber has slowed down due to the decline in inventory and the phased improvement of spot transactions. In the medium term, the weak operation of butadiene has led to a downward movement of butadiene rubber prices. The high supply pressure of butadiene in the fourth quarter is the main contradiction, and the inventory pressure is gradually increasing. With the decline of the cost side, the processing profit of butadiene rubber has expanded significantly. The macro - driving force has weakened, and butadiene rubber is operating weakly [4]. - Attention should be paid to whether there will be a phased improvement in the supply - demand pattern of butadiene rubber during the concentrated maintenance in mid - to late November and under the background of the high nr - br spread [4].