Group 1: Report Title and Date - Title: Copper Weekly Report: Macroeconomic Sentiment Digested, Copper Prices Corrected at High Levels [1] - Date: November 10, 2025 [1] Group 2: Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1. Last Week's Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper prices corrected at high levels, closing at 85,940 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.46%. After the release of positive factors such as the suspension of Sino-US tariff consultations and the Fed's expected interest rate cut, copper prices gave back some gains. In the long - term, the copper price center is supported by the continuous shortage of copper mines and the expected resumption of Grasberg copper mine next year. Domestic electrolytic copper production may remain low due to anti - involution expectations in copper smelting and anode copper supply. High copper prices suppress downstream industries, and terminal demand is mainly for rigid procurement, leading to correction pressure on copper prices. After the correction, copper prices may fluctuate at high levels [5]. 2. Supply Side - The contradiction between mining and smelting persists, and TC is at a low level. As of November 7, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 498,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8.03%. The spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate dropped to a historical low of - 42 US dollars/ton. In October, domestic southern crude copper processing fees rebounded slightly. Domestic electrolytic copper production continued to decline. In October, the electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%, mainly affected by smelter maintenance and difficulty in anode copper procurement [9]. 3. Demand Side - With the high - level correction of copper prices, the operating rate increased month - on - month. As of November 6, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 62%, a month - on - month increase of 1.54 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.03 percentage points. The correction of copper prices stimulated the concentrated release of orders, and the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises increased. In September, the operating rates of copper plate and strip, copper foil, and copper rod were 66.02%, 82.17%, and 45.10% respectively. The terminal orders of copper plate and strip increased, but the growth was limited due to high copper prices. The copper rod industry showed a slight recovery, and the strong terminal demand for lithium - ion copper foil boosted the operating rate of copper foil enterprises to a new high for the year [10]. 4. Inventory - Domestic copper inventory continued to accumulate, the de - stocking of LME copper slowed down, and COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate. As of November 7, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 11.50 tons, a weekly decrease of 0.95%. As of November 6, the domestic social copper inventory was 203,300 tons, a weekly increase of 11.34%. As of November 7, the LME copper inventory was 135,900 tons, a weekly increase of 0.95%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 36,940 short tons, a weekly increase of 3.85% [10]. 5. Strategy Suggestion - Macroscopically, the Fed's hawkish remarks increased, the expectation of an interest rate cut in December decreased, and the delay of key US employment data due to the government shutdown made the market sentiment cautious. The strengthening of the US dollar also suppressed copper prices. Fundamentally, the slow resumption of overseas mines did not alleviate the tight supply of copper concentrates, and TC/RC remained at a low level. Domestic electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month, and short - term supply growth was limited. High copper prices suppressed consumption, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. Near the delivery date, the willingness of holders to support prices increased, and the spot premium rebounded. In the short term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels, and the operating range of Shanghai copper may be between 84,000 - 88,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading within the range [11]. Group 3: Macroeconomic and Industrial News 1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - China's October RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.6, remaining above the boom - bust line for three consecutive months, indicating continuous improvement in manufacturing prosperity, but the growth rate slowed down. China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year in October, while imports increased by 1.0%. The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 30,000 ounces in October. The US October ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the eighth consecutive month, with weak demand and employment. The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 50, indicating stagnation. The US officially included copper in the new critical minerals list [15]. 2. Industrial News Overview - Ivanhoe Mines' Q3 profit dropped significantly due to the shutdown of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine. Glencore plans to close its copper smelter in Canada due to cost issues. Codelco lowered its 2025 copper production forecast. Chile's copper exports to China remained high in October. Lundin Mining raised its 2025 copper production forecast and lowered its cost estimate [17]. Group 4: Spot and Futures Market and Positioning 1. Premium and Discount - As copper prices declined, the sentiment of spot procurement and sales of Shanghai copper improved, and the spot premium rebounded. The LME copper 0 - 3 discount narrowed, and the New York - London copper price difference weakened slightly [20]. 2. Domestic and Foreign Positions - As of November 7, the futures position of Shanghai copper was 207,136 lots, a weekly decrease of 19.81%; the average daily trading volume was 130,438 lots, a weekly decrease of 43.52%. As of October 31, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 9,862.02 lots, a weekly increase of 318.60% [26]. Group 5: Fundamental Data 1. Supply Side - The contradiction between mining and smelting persists, and TC is at a low level. Domestic copper concentrate port inventory increased, and the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrate dropped to a historical low. Domestic electrolytic copper production continued to decline in October [31]. 2. Downstream Operating Rate - As of November 6, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises increased month - on - month. In September, the operating rates of copper plate and strip, copper foil, and copper rod showed different trends. Copper foil enterprises' operating rate reached a new high for the year [35]. 3. Inventory - Domestic copper inventory continued to accumulate, the de - stocking of LME copper slowed down, and COMEX copper inventory continued to increase [38].
铜周报：宏观情绪消化，铜价高位回调-20251110
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-11-10 03:31