Report Title - Yangtze River Futures Weekly Report on Meal and Oil [1] Report Date - November 10, 2025 [1] Reported Industries - Bean meal and oil industries Reported Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Views - For bean meal, with the opening of US soybean imports, costs drive the price up. In the short term, US soybeans are expected to fluctuate widely, and domestic bean meal prices will follow, but may be slightly stronger. For oils, prices are oscillating at the bottom, waiting for the guidance of supply and demand reports. In the short term, the upside pressure is large, but there is also support at the bottom [2][8][92] Section Summaries 1. Bean Meal 1.1 Price and Market Situation - As of November 7, the spot price in East China was 2990 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton weekly; the M2601 contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton weekly; the basis price remained unchanged. After China announced the reduction of the import tax rate on US soybeans to 13%, both domestic and foreign markets accelerated their rise, but due to continuous losses in the domestic import soybean crushing profit, the ship - buying progress was slow, causing the US soybean price to fall from its high, and the domestic futures price also followed suit, but with a smaller decline. It is expected that US soybeans will fluctuate around 1100 cents, and the M2601 contract will operate in the range of [3000, 3100] [8][10] 1.2 Supply - On November 14, the USDA will release the November US soybean supply - demand report. Referring to the previous good - quality rate, the probability of a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit is relatively large, which supports the strong operation of US soybeans. As of November 1, the sowing progress of new - crop soybeans in Brazil was 47.1%, lower than 53.3% in the same period last year. In the next two weeks, the precipitation in the main producing areas of Brazil will improve, which is conducive to the sowing of soybeans. In China, the soybean arrival volume in November is normal, but from December to January, due to losses in import crushing profits, the ship - buying progress is slow, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction [8] 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, and the inventory of pigs and poultry was at a high level, supporting the feed demand. The year - on - year increase in feed demand was more than 7%. In terms of the formula, due to the improved cost - effectiveness of bean meal and the relatively low price, the proportion of bean meal added increased year - on - year. It is expected that the year - on - year increase in bean meal demand in the fourth quarter will be more than 5%, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of more than 9 million tons. As of the latest data, the national soybean inventory of oil mills continued to decrease to 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.39%, and an increase of 1.6005 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 29.06%. The bean meal inventory of oil mills continued to increase to 115,300 tons, an increase of 9840 tons from the previous week, an increase of 9.33%, and an increase of 16,890 tons year - on - year, an increase of 17.16% [8] 1.4 Cost - In the 25/26 season, the US soybean yield per unit increased, and the planting cost dropped to 1135 cents/bushel. Assuming a maximum loss of 150 cents/bushel, the bottom price of US soybeans is expected to be around 980 cents/bushel. However, the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is at a low level, and the trend of US soybeans is strong. With the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the premium of Brazilian soybeans has weakened, while that of US soybeans has strengthened. Based on the latest quotes, the domestic bean meal cost price is calculated to be 2960 yuan/ton [8] 1.5 Market Summary and Strategy - After the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, there is no further short - term positive stimulus. It is expected that US soybeans will fluctuate widely, and domestic bean meal prices will follow, but due to losses in crushing profits and the entry into the inventory reduction cycle, the price is expected to be slightly stronger than that of US soybeans. The M2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of [3000, 3100], and the basis will maintain a weak trend. If the yield per unit is adjusted downward as expected in the supply - demand report on November 14, US soybeans are expected to rise and then fall, with the price center rising, and domestic bean meal prices will follow. The strategy suggestions are to mainly conduct range operations on the M2601 contract; lightly build long positions on the M2605 and M2609 contracts on dips, and hold existing long positions; spot enterprises should sell the basis on rallies and roll long positions [8] 2. Oils 2.1 Price and Market Situation - As of the week of November 7, the palm oil main 01 contract fell 104 yuan/ton to 8660 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the soybean oil main 01 contract rose 56 yuan/ton to 8184 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 01 contract rose 111 yuan/ton to 9533 yuan/ton. This week, the oil market showed weak palm oil and strong soybean and rapeseed oils, mainly because palm oil was under pressure due to the expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October [92] 2.2 Palm Oil - It is estimated that the palm oil production in Malaysia in October increased by more than 10%, while the export increase was small. The market expects the ending inventory in that month to accumulate to a high of 2.44 million tons, and the MPOB report is expected to be bearish. In early November, the data from SPPOMA showed that the production in Malaysia continued to increase, while the data from ITS showed weak exports, with strong supply and weak demand continuing to pressure the market. In Indonesia, GAPKI estimates that the country's palm oil production in 2025 will increase by 10% year - on - year, exceeding market expectations. The expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October, combined with the potential obstacles to the implementation of B50 and the increase in production in Indonesia in 2025, will continue to pressure the palm oil price in the short term. However, after the recent decline in palm oil prices, India has been actively buying ships, and demand has improved. After November, Southeast Asia enters the production - reduction season, and La Nina this year may intensify the reduction, so there is still support at the bottom of palm oil prices. It is expected that the Malaysian palm oil 01 contract will oscillate at a low level in the short term. Pay attention to the performance of the support level at 4000 - 4100 and the MPOB report on the 10th. In China, the estimated palm oil ship - buying volumes in October and November are 230,000 tons each, similar to the level in 2024. The palm oil supply from November to December is sufficient. As of October 31, the domestic palm oil inventory was 592,800 tons, and it is difficult to significantly reduce the inventory in the short term [92] 2.3 Soybean Oil - Last week, China decided to maintain the 13% import tariff on US soybeans and restored the import access of three US soybean trading companies, injecting some positive sentiment into the market. However, the market is still waiting for the USDA or other official institutions to provide definite evidence of China's large - scale purchase of US soybeans. Currently, the 13% tariff on US soybeans is still higher than the 3% on Brazilian soybeans. China is accelerating the purchase of Brazilian soybeans as the premium of Brazilian soybeans declines, and the lack of details in the soybean purchase signing ceremony in Shanghai last Thursday has intensified the market's cautious sentiment towards soybean demand. It is expected that US soybeans will enter an oscillating phase after the previous rise. The 01 contract is temporarily expected to test the support level at 1100. In China, the soybean arrival volume in September exceeded 12 million tons, and the oil mills maintained a high operating rate. As of the week of October 31, the soybean oil inventory remained at a high of 1.2158 million tons, and the supply pressure continued to suppress prices. In the long term, the soybean import volume has gradually declined since October compared with the peak in the second and third quarters, which is conducive to the slow reduction of domestic soybean oil inventory. However, China previously imported a large amount of soybeans from Argentina when Argentina取消 its export tax, and US soybeans can also enter China again. The long - term soybean supply is still sufficient, which limits the speed of soybean oil inventory reduction [92] 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian Prime Minister said that it is difficult to cancel the tariff on China in the short term, which has cooled the market's expectation of the rapid normalization of Sino - Canadian relations and the end of the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed. The market has started to trade the fundamental situation of tight rapeseed supply in the fourth quarter again. Without the import of Canadian rapeseed, the rapeseed supply and demand will remain tight in the fourth quarter. The coastal rapeseed inventory has dropped to an extremely low level, causing most rapeseed crushing plants to shut down after the National Day. With the reduction in supply, domestic rapeseed oil is in the process of slow inventory reduction. As of October 31, the inventory dropped to 516,000 tons. Although the import of Australian rapeseed and Russian oil in November will help supplement the supply, China's ability to process Australian rapeseed is limited, and it is the peak season for oil consumption. The marginal improvement in supply and demand in the fourth quarter may be limited. However, it should be noted that the general direction of Sino - Canadian relations is still gradually improving, but there may be various twists and turns in the negotiations between the two countries. With the continuous existence of policy - related risks, the upward space for rapeseed oil prices is also limited [92] 2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short term, due to the expected large - scale inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October, the expected over - increase in production in Indonesia in 2025, the unclear prospects of B50, the market's wait for China to officially start large - scale purchases of US soybeans, and the general improvement in Sino - Canadian trade relations, the upside pressure on oils is large. However, the expectation of palm oil production reduction in Southeast Asia starting from November still exists. La Nina is unfavorable to the growth of palm oil in Southeast Asia and soybeans in South America. The US soybean price has rebounded due to the expected improvement in Chinese demand, and the supply and demand of rapeseed in China's fourth quarter are still tight, so there is also support at the bottom of prices, and the overall trend is bottom - building. In the future, pay attention to whether the MPOB report on the 10th shows a large - scale inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October and whether the USDA report on the 14th evening will lower the ending inventory of new - crop US soybeans. Among the varieties, rapeseed oil and soybean oil are stronger than palm oil. In the long term, pay attention to the implementation of the biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the United States, the reduction amplitude of palm oil production in Southeast Asia, and whether the La Nina weather speculation in South America can be launched. It is expected that the oil market will fluctuate widely. The strategy suggestions are to pay attention to the support levels of 7900 - 8000, 8450 - 8500, and 9300 - 9400 for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils respectively, and not to blindly chase short positions. For the arbitrage side, stop the profit - taking on the strategy of widening the spread between the 01 contracts of soybean and palm oils [92]
长江期货粕类油脂周报-20251110
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-11-10 03:30