尿素：政策调节，估值重于驱动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of urea is 1, indicating a neutral to slightly positive outlook [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term urea is expected to be supported in a volatile range. The mid - stream's continuous replenishment and new export quotas support prices, while policy regulation weakens the downward pressure from high domestic supply [2][3] - The domestic fundamentals of urea face relatively large pressure, but policy regulation reduces the intensity of the downward drive. In the fourth quarter, it is a "buyer's market" in China. The 01 contract has a strong resistance level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Related Content Urea Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,667 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,668 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan. The trading volume was 321,705 lots, an increase of 172,820 lots, and the open interest of the 01 contract was 268,588 lots, a decrease of 6,554 lots. The basis in Shandong was - 67 yuan, down 3 yuan, and the UR01 - UR05 spread was - 67 yuan, up 16 yuan [1] - Spot Market: Factory prices of most urea producers remained stable, with only Jiangsu Linggu increasing by 10 yuan to 1,620 yuan/ton. The trading prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi increased by 20 yuan and 30 yuan respectively. The industry's operating rate was 80.69%, up 0.43 percentage points, and the daily output was 188,760 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons [1] Industry News - On November 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5781 million tons, an increase of 23,800 tons from the previous week, a 1.53% increase. Some regions' inventories increased due to environmental protection and market demand changes [2]