橡胶周报：供需偏松库存累库，盘面或将偏弱震荡-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures declined slightly last week. Looking ahead, the macro sentiment has weakened, the supply side has certain support, the terminal consumption performance is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade has accumulated more than expected, which also exerts pressure on rubber prices. Overall, considering the weakening of the macro - and fundamental aspects and the seasonal inventory accumulation, it is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly in the short term [8][86][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2601 of natural rubber futures fluctuated between 14,740 - 15,170 yuan/ton, first declining and then rising, with an overall slight decline. As of the close on November 7, 2025, it closed at 14,995 yuan/ton, down 90 points or 0.6% for the week [14]. 现货价格 - As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,400 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,050 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,030 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [19][23]. Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly last week. As of November 7, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 445 yuan/ton, narrowing 155 yuan/ton from last week [26]. Important Market Information - The US federal government's "shutdown" from October 1 to November 6 has broken the historical record, which may reduce the fourth - quarter economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points. The increase in US ADP employment in October has added uncertainty to the Fed's December interest - rate cut. There are also mixed signals in the US employment situation, with different data showing different trends. The Fed's internal differences on interest - rate cuts are intensifying. High - frequency economic data such as the US ISM service and manufacturing PMIs have different performances. In addition, there are developments in Sino - US economic and trade relations, and the performance of the new energy vehicle and traditional vehicle markets in China is also reported [30][31][33]. Supply - Side Situation - As of September 30, 2025, among the main natural rubber - producing countries, Thailand's production decreased slightly, Indonesia's decreased slightly, Malaysia's increased slightly, India's increased slightly, Vietnam's decreased slightly, and China's increased slightly. The total production in September 2025 was 1.0353 million tons, an increase of 48,300 tons or 4.89% from the previous month, with the growth rate continuing to decline slightly. The monthly production of synthetic rubber in China in September 2025 was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5%, and the cumulative production was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China in September 2025 was 10,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.98% [39][44][48]. Demand - Side Situation - As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly compared with last week. As of September 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, the monthly sales of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, the monthly production of tire casings increased slightly year - on - year, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased month - on - month. With the weather getting colder, there is an expectation of weakening demand [55][59][62]. Inventory - Side Situation - As of November 7, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 118,970 tons, down 1,930 tons from last week. As of November 2, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.056 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons or 1.6%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 3%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber decreased by 0.4%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons or 3.57%, with the bonded area inventory decreasing by 0.58% and the general trade inventory increasing by 4.36% [83]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The global natural rubber production areas are in the peak supply season. The raw material prices in Yunnan are basically stable, and the rainfall in Hainan has limited improvement, affecting the tapping volume. The downstream factory procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the raw material prices are weakly stable. In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to October increased significantly year - on - year. - Demand side: The operating rate of tire enterprises increased slightly last week. The overall inventory fluctuated slightly, with semi - steel tires continuously accumulating inventory and all - steel tires turning to inventory accumulation again. With the weather getting colder, the demand for all - steel tire replacement markets will weaken further, and the demand for semi - steel tires will also slow down. The automobile production and sales in September increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The tire export volume in September decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume from January to September increased year - on - year. - Inventory side: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week, while China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao increased slightly, with a relatively large increase in the general trade inventory in Qingdao [84][85]. 后市展望 - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures declined slightly last week. In the future, the macro sentiment has weakened, the supply side has certain support, the terminal consumption performance is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade has accumulated more than expected, which also exerts pressure on rubber prices. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Key factors to be followed include Sino - US trade relations, the progress of anti - dumping policies in Europe and the US, weather disturbances and raw material output in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, and the progress of zero - tariff policies [86][87]. 观点及操作策略 - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will fluctuate weakly in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, use an interval - trading approach, and aggressive traders can consider buying on dips. For arbitrage and options trading, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [88][89].