甲醇：驱动向下，但下方空间逐步收窄

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental driver of methanol is downward, but the downside space is gradually narrowing. The supply is high in the short - term, the demand side has pressure, and the macro - drive is weak, leading to the weak operation of methanol recently. However, due to the increase in the cost of coal - to - methanol, the downside space is narrowing [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the methanol main contract (01 contract) was 2,125 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,116 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the trading volume was 1,243,391 lots; the open interest was 1,368,330 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 10,854 tons, down 305 tons; the turnover was 2,631,338 ten - thousand yuan, down 348,111 ten - thousand yuan. The basis was - 22, up 23 from the previous day, and the spread between MA01 and MA05 was - 101, down 6 from the previous day [1]. - Spot Market: The price in Inner Mongolia was 1,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in northern Shaanxi was 1,950 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the price in Shandong was 2,085 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. Spot News - No specific content is provided in the given text. Futures Research - Inventory: As of November 5, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 151.71 million tons, an increase of 1.06 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The inventory in ports increased slightly this week, with 232,000 tons of explicit outer - wheel unloading and 113,800 tons of non - explicit outer - wheel unloading. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly [3]. - Driver: The fundamental driver of methanol is downward. In terms of supply, in early November, with the concentrated resumption of production of devices, the daily output of methanol increased significantly compared with late October. In terms of imports, the logistics contradiction of methanol imports may be alleviated, and the imported goods are still abundant. On the demand side, the MTO industry has increased pressure and compressed profits, which restricts the upward space of methanol. Macro - drivers have weakened, and methanol has been running weakly recently. In terms of valuation, the cost of coal - to - methanol has increased, and the downside space of methanol is narrowing [3][4]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of methanol is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4].