国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251110

Group 1: Market Outlook - Nickel is expected to trade in a low range due to the game between high inventory accumulation and risks in Indonesia [2][4] - Stainless steel prices are dragged down by weak reality and are expected to have short - term low - level oscillations [2][4] - The upside space of lithium carbonate is restricted by the expectation of复产 [2][9] - Industrial silicon has obvious bottom support [2][12] - Polysilicon has entered a policy vacuum period, and the market is trading based on supply - demand logic [2][13] Group 2: Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] - Stainless steel trend intensity is 0, also indicating a neutral outlook [8] - Lithium carbonate trend intensity is - 1, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook [11] - Industrial silicon trend intensity is 1, showing a slightly bullish outlook [15] - Polysilicon trend intensity is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [15] Group 3: Fundamental Data Nickel and Stainless Steel - On November 10, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,440, down 310 from T - 1 [4] - The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 12,565, down 25 from T - 1 [4] Lithium Carbonate - The closing price of the 2511 contract was 80,460, up 2,580 from T - 1 [9] - The closing price of the 2601 contract was 82,300, up 1,800 from T - 1 [9] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The Si2601 closing price was 9,220 yuan/ton, up 155 from T - 1 [13] - The PS2601 closing price was 53,215 yuan/ton, down 180 from T - 1 [13] Group 4: Macro and Industry News Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Indonesian forestry working group took over a nickel mining area in North Maluku Province, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month [4] - China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [4] - Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies [5] Lithium Carbonate - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 80,371 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan/ton from the previous working day [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On October 31, the 40 - megawatt tea - light complementary photovoltaic project in Danyang, Jiangsu was fully connected to the grid [13][15]