国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251110

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it offers short - term trend outlooks for various commodities in the black series: - High - level Repeated: Iron ore, coke, and coking coal [2] - Wide - range Fluctuations: Rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese [2] - Oscillatory Repeated: Logs [2] 2. Core Views The report presents the latest market data and news for different commodities in the black series, including futures and spot prices, trading volumes, positions, and various price spreads. It also provides a short - term trend outlook for each commodity, with a trend strength index ranging from - 2 to 2, where all commodities in this report have a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral view. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Futures Price: The closing price of the iron ore futures contract was 760.5 yuan/ton, down 17.0 yuan/ton (-2.19%) [4]. - Spot Price: Imported ore prices decreased, while domestic ore prices remained stable. The price of lump ore (65%) dropped by 14.0 yuan/ton to 878.0 yuan/ton [4]. - Price Spread: The basis and some inter - contract spreads changed slightly [4]. - News: In October 2025, the national consumer price index rose by 0.2% year - on - year [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Futures Price: The closing price of the RB2601 rebar futures contract was 3,034 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.20%); the HC2601 hot - rolled coil futures contract closed at 3,245 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.34%) [7]. - Spot Price: Rebar prices in some regions increased slightly, while hot - rolled coil prices decreased slightly [7]. - Price Spread: The basis and some inter - contract spreads changed [7]. - News: In October 2025, China imported 50.3 million tons of steel, a decrease of 4.5 million tons (8.2%) from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative steel imports decreased by 11.9% year - on - year. Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data also showed changes [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Futures Price: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures contracts decreased. For example, the closing price of the ferrosilicon 2601 contract was 5526 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [11]. - Spot Price: The price of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5220 yuan/ton, and the price of silicomanganese was 5620 yuan/ton. The price of semi - coke increased by 60 yuan/ton to 820 yuan/ton [11]. - Price Spread: The basis, inter - contract spreads, and cross - commodity spreads changed [11]. - News: The starting price of lump coal for semi - coke raw materials increased, and the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in some regions were reported. The inventory of manganese ore in ports changed, and the quotes of manganese ore suppliers for December increased [11][12][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - Futures Price: The closing price of the JM2601 coking coal futures contract was 1270 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan/ton (-1.6%); the J2601 coke futures contract closed at 1756.5 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-1.1%) [14]. - Spot Price: The prices of most coking coal and coke varieties remained stable, with a few showing small changes. For example, the arrival price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke increased by 50 yuan/ton to 1545 yuan/ton [14]. - Price Spread: The basis and inter - contract spreads changed [14]. - News: In October 2025, the national consumer price index rose by 0.2% year - on - year [15]. Logs - Futures Price: The prices of different log futures contracts showed small fluctuations. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract was 778.5 yuan, down 0.1% [17]. - Trading Volume and Position: The trading volume of most contracts decreased, while the positions of some contracts increased slightly [17]. - Price Spread: The basis and inter - contract spreads changed [17]. - News: Starting from November 10, 2025, China will resume importing logs from the United States [19].