Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting the bottom. The negative news from the overseas producing areas has basically been exhausted, and the market is waiting for more information, especially the rhythm of China's soybean purchases from the US. [31] - Domestically, the inventory of soybean oil is expected to stop increasing and decline, and with cost support, soybean oil is relatively resistant to decline. The narrowing price difference between palm oil and soybean oil improves the cost - effectiveness of palm oil. [31] - The pessimistic sentiment in the edible oil market has priced in short - term negatives, but the core contradictions remain. The high - yield of palm oil is not sustainable, and the expansion of biodiesel demand is a definite trend. Soybean oil has solid cost support, and the domestic inventory pressure can be adjusted through the import rhythm. Although rapeseed oil has high policy risks, the de - stocking trend remains under the background of global rapeseed production reduction. The edible oil sector is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. [31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Abstract - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting the bottom. The Y2601 soybean oil contract rose 0.69% to close at 8,184 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil contract fell 1.19% to close at 8,660 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil contract rose 1.18% to close at 9,533 yuan/ton. [5][30] 3.2 Important Information - Palm oil: In October, due to more working days and better weather, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase 6% month - on - month to 1.95 million tons, with a significantly higher increase than the historical average. The estimated export volume is 1.47 - 1.48 million tons. Despite increased domestic consumption, the palm oil inventory is expected to accumulate to over 2.4 million tons at the end of October. Malaysian palm oil prices fell 2.26%. [7][30] - Soybean oil: China's soybean imports in October reached a record high for the month, at 9.48 million tons, a 17.2% increase from 8.09 million tons in the same period last year. From May to October this year, China's soybean imports repeatedly hit new highs. In the first 10 months, China's soybean imports increased 6.4% year - on - year to 95.68 million tons. However, imports in October decreased 26.3% compared to September, reflecting a typical seasonal pattern. US soybeans rose 0.20% this week. [7][31] 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of November 6, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,360 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [10] - As of November 6, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [11] - As of November 6, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the futures main - contract price was 9,564 yuan/ton, up 157 yuan/ton. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [12] 3.4 Other Data - As of October 31, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 1.462 million tons. On November 5, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 19,000 tons to 620,000 tons. [16] - As of November 6, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 7,956,210 tons. [19] - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 172 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [20] - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 192 yuan/ton, down 152 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [21] - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 286 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [23] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The content is basically the same as the core view of the report, emphasizing the price trends of palm oil and soybean oil this week, and the future market outlook for the edible oil sector. [30][31]
市场获得支撑，油脂探底回升
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-11-10 03:18