碳酸锂：复产预期制约上方空间

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of production resumption restricts the upward space of lithium carbonate [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Market Data: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 80,460 yuan, with a volume of 425 and an open interest of 2,507. The closing price of the 2601 contract was 82,300 yuan, with a volume of 810,655 and an open interest of 490,951. The warehouse receipt volume was 27,332 lots. The spot - 2511 was -60 yuan, and the spot - 2601 was -1,900 yuan. The basis of 2511 - 2601 was -1,840 yuan [2]. - Raw Material Prices: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 927 yuan, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,120 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 78,200 yuan [2]. - Lithium Salt and Related Product Prices: The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 80,500 yuan, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF) was 9,750 yuan. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 35,900 yuan, and the price of ternary materials also had corresponding values [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 80,371 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 78,200 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous working day [3]. - In October 2025, the domestic energy storage market completed 10GW/29.4GWh of energy storage system and EPC general contracting bidding work, and there were also procurement orders for 130MWh of battery cells, 180MWh of DC side, and 225MW of PCS [3][4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was -1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [4].