碳酸锂周报：复产预期VS去库幅度扩大，碳酸锂低多对待-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of lithium carbonate continues to show a tight supply - demand balance. The total inventory has been decreasing for 12 consecutive weeks, and the de - stocking amplitude has further expanded. Although domestic production has continuously reached new highs and the import volume is expected to increase in November, the terminal market is strong. However, the expected acceleration of the resumption of production may put pressure on the price. It is recommended to take appropriate profit - taking for long positions near the previous high and wait for opportunities to go long on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - In October, China's official manufacturing PMI dropped to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. Exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI was 50 in October, with Germany and France in continuous contraction. The US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for 8 consecutive months, but the service PMI reached an 8 - month high. The US government shutdown has entered its 36th day [3]. 3.2 Supply Side - This week, the weekly output of lithium carbonate continued to increase, remaining above 23,000 tons and reaching a new high for the year. The average industry operating rate rebounded to over 50%. In October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a 56% increase from the previous month, with 16,200 tons exported to China [3]. 3.3 Demand Side - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, from October 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.387 million vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase and a 7% increase from the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 19.395 million vehicles, a 9% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 2.922 million vehicles, a 7% year - on - year increase and a 4% increase from the previous month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 23.769 million vehicles, a 12% year - on - year increase [4]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the price of the mining end increased. The price of African SC 5% remained unchanged at $630 per ton compared to last week. The CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $940 per ton, a decrease of $53 per ton from last week. The market price of lepidolite was 2,775 yuan per ton, an increase of 100 yuan from last week. The production cost of lithium carbonate was 71,169 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan from last week, and the industry profit was 8,904 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,887 yuan [4]. 3.5 Total Inventory - As of November 6, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 123,953 tons, a decrease of 3,406 tons from last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 30,715 tons, a decrease of 1,336 tons from the previous week [5]. 3.6 Market Review - As of November 7, LC2601 closed at 82,300 yuan per ton, a 1.9% increase from last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,250 yuan per ton, a 2.7% decrease from last week. The basis discount widened, and the main contract's open interest was 492,000. The main contract first declined and then rose this week. On Tuesday, the market was impacted by the news of the full resumption of mica mines by CATL and Guoxuan, causing the lithium price to drop significantly. However, due to strong downstream demand, tight supply - demand balance, and continuous de - stocking, the price was difficult to fall deeply [8]. 3.7 Product Output and Operating Rate - Lithium Carbonate: As of November 7, the output was 23,465 tons, a week - on - week increase of 145 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 51.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%. The price increase stimulated production enthusiasm, and the production of some enterprises increased [10]. - Lithium Hydroxide: As of November 7, the output was 6,455 tons, a week - on - week increase of 165 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 36.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.72%. Mainstream holders focused on fulfilling long - term contracts, and cathode material manufacturers were cautious in purchasing [12]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of November 7, the output was 96,856 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,420 tons. The enterprise operating rate was 85.24%, a week - on - week increase of 7.41%. The industry was in a situation of both strong supply and demand [14]. - Ternary Materials: The demand in the power field was strong, and the production schedule increased slightly [16]. - Other Cathode Materials: The demand structure was differentiated, and the supply remained stable [24]. 3.8 Inventory Situation - Lithium Carbonate Industry: As of November 6, the total inventory was 123,953 tons, a decrease of 3,406 tons from last week. The warehouse receipt inventory was 27,332 tons, a decrease of 289 tons from last week. The post - holiday de - stocking accelerated, and the warehouse receipt continued to decline, intensifying the tightness of spot circulation [32]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry: As of November 7, the total inventory was 40,132 tons, a decrease of 541 tons from last week. The finished - product inventory continued to decline, and the market demand drove inventory digestion [35]. 3.9 Cost and Profit of Products - Lithium Carbonate: As of November 7, the production cost was 71,169 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan from last week, and the industry profit was 8,904 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,887 yuan. The price of lithium ore followed the fluctuation of lithium carbonate, and the de - stocking trend supported the price [49]. - Lithium Hydroxide: As of November 7, the production cost was 68,465 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1,001 yuan from last week, and the industry profit was 7,643 yuan per ton, an increase of 943 yuan from last week. The supply tightened, and the inventory de - stocking supported the price [51]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of November 7, the production cost was 36,677 yuan per ton, a decrease of 220 yuan from last week, and the loss was 2,463 yuan per ton, an increase of 37 yuan per ton from last week. Although the raw material price was strong and the demand was high, the over - capacity of conventional products limited price increases [53]. - Ternary Materials and Other Products: The cost - profit transmission was not smooth, and the industry profit level faced challenges [56].