华龙期货铁矿周报-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the black market returned to the fundamental logic of weak terminal demand. The apparent demand for the five major steel products declined, the destocking slowed down, market sentiment weakened, and iron ore port inventories increased significantly. The fundamentals of iron ore were further pressured. The loss - making range of steel mills continued to expand, pig iron production continued to decline. Recently, the overall supply of iron ore fundamentals was strong while demand was weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly [4][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the iron ore 2601 contract fell 4.58% [4] 3.2 Important Market Information - China's gold reserves at the end of October were reported at 74.09 million ounces (about 2304.457 tons), an increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons) from the previous month, marking the 12th consecutive month of increase. The gold reserves at the end of September were reported at 74.06 million ounces. The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the 2025 No. 29 announcement on suspending the import of US logs, effective from November 10, 2025 [12] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of October 2025, the import volume of iron ore and its concentrates was 111.309 million tons, a decrease of 5.021 million tons from the previous month; the import average price was $100.56 per ton, an increase of $3.61 from the previous month. The iron ore shipment volume from Australia was 66.842 million tons, an increase of 1.671 million tons from the previous month; the shipment volume from Brazil was 29.255 million tons, an increase of 1.057 million tons from the first half of the month [17][21] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - According to Mysteel, last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.84 percentage points; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 87.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.19 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 19.91 percentage points; the daily average pig iron production was 2.3422 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21,400 tons [33] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - In the first 10 months, China's iron ore imports were 1.029 billion tons, an increase of 0.7%, and the import average price decreased by 10.7%. In October, China imported 111.309 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates. In October, China's steel exports were 9.782 million tons, a decrease of 683,000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 6.5%; from January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.737 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 148.9883 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5635 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2093 million tons, an increase of 77,000 tons; the number of ships at ports was 109, a decrease of 9. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 156.2413 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5120 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3555 million tons, an increase of 433,000 tons [32] 3.6 Market Outlook - Recently, the overall supply of iron ore fundamentals was strong while demand was weak, and it was expected to fluctuate weakly [35] 3.7 Operation Strategy - Unilateral: Go short lightly at high prices - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Wait and see [5][36]