铜铝周报：铝强铜弱-20251110

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Copper: Copper prices declined from a high level, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close their positions. Last week, Shanghai copper showed a trend of declining with reduced positions. The main contract price of Shanghai copper stabilized at around 85,000 yuan, and the decline in open interest also slowed down. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, the market sentiment turned cold, and the strong US dollar index pressured copper prices. Additionally, LME copper was at a near - 5 - year high, leading to strong short - term profit - taking intentions among long - position holders. In the second half of the week, the US dollar index retreated after reaching a high, facing some pressure at the 100 mark, corresponding to a sign of copper price stabilization and recovery. On the industrial level, as copper prices declined, downstream purchasing willingness recovered, and the spot premium strengthened. The domestic upstream electrolytic copper production has decreased significantly for two consecutive months. In the medium - to - long - term, macro - easing and supply contraction expectations may continue to support copper prices. In the short term, the support at the 85,000 - yuan mark can be continuously monitored [5][54]. - Aluminum: With positive domestic macro - economic conditions and the resurgence of the "anti - involution" expectation, aluminum prices showed strong performance. Last week, Shanghai aluminum showed a trend of rising with increased positions. The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum reached above 20,600 yuan, approaching the high in November 2024. At the macro level, the domestic "anti - involution" expectation was strong, and the relatively strong varieties in the third quarter all strengthened again. Industrially, global electrolytic aluminum inventories were at a low level, and the market expected that overseas electrolytic aluminum supply might be restricted by electricity. As aluminum prices strengthened, domestic downstream purchasing willingness declined, and the destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventories slowed down. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the November 2024 high above and the support of the 10 - day moving average below [6][54]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors After the Fed's interest - rate meeting at the end of October, the overall US dollar index showed a strong performance, putting pressure on non - ferrous metals. Last week, the US dollar index retreated after reaching a high, showing some pressure at the 100 mark, corresponding to the stabilization and recovery of copper prices. The trend of the US dollar index can be continuously monitored [10]. 3.2 Copper - Volume and Price Trends: Shanghai copper declined with reduced positions last week, and the main contract price stabilized at around 85,000 yuan. The decline in open interest also slowed down. The US dollar index and market sentiment affected copper prices, and there was a sign of price recovery in the second half of the week [5][54]. - Copper Ore Shortage: No specific shortage - related analysis was provided in the text, but only relevant data charts such as copper concentrate port inventory and TC processing fees were presented [26]. - Electrolytic Copper Stockpiling: There were data on domestic and overseas electrolytic copper inventories, but no in - depth analysis of stockpiling was provided [28]. - Downstream Initial - stage: There was a chart of copper downstream monthly capacity utilization, but no detailed analysis [32]. 3.3 Aluminum - Volume and Price Trends: Shanghai aluminum rose with increased positions last week, and the main contract price reached above 20,600 yuan, approaching the high in November 2024. The macro - economic situation and market expectations affected aluminum prices [6][54]. - Upstream Industry Chain: There were data on bauxite port inventory and alumina price, but no in - depth analysis [42][46]. - Slowed Destocking of Electrolytic Aluminum: Global electrolytic aluminum inventories were at a low level, and the market expected overseas supply to be restricted by electricity. As aluminum prices strengthened, domestic downstream purchasing willingness declined, and the destocking of electrolytic aluminum social inventories slowed down [6][54]. - Downstream Initial - stage: There were data on aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees, and 6063 aluminum rod inventory, but no detailed analysis [48][50][53]. 3.4 Conclusion The conclusion is consistent with the core views, emphasizing the short - term and long - term trends of copper and aluminum prices, as well as the influencing factors from both macro and industrial levels [54].