华宝期货晨报铝锭-20251110

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - For building materials, it is expected to run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving down and running weakly. The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. - For aluminum ingots, the price is expected to run at a high level in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - Production Impact: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown is from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting 74.1 thousand tons of total construction steel output. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have shutdown plans, with a daily output impact of about 1.62 thousand tons [3]. - Market Transaction: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3]. - Market Situation: Building materials prices continued to decline, hitting a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment was pessimistic, and winter storage was sluggish, with weak price support [3]. Aluminum Ingots - Bauxite Production: In October 2025, China's bauxite production decreased by 2.25% month - on - month and 6.96% year - on - year. Some mines affected by environmental policies and rainy seasons were waiting for government approval to resume production. Imported bauxite was sufficient, and domestic bauxite prices were expected to remain stable [3]. - Downstream Processing: The overall starting rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 61.6% last week, a 0.6 - percentage - point decrease. The starting rates of aluminum cables, profiles, plates, and foils all declined due to various factors such as environmental protection, weak orders, and high aluminum prices [3]. - Inventory Situation: On November 6, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 622 thousand tons. The weak inventory accumulation pressure increased in November, which might have a negative impact on aluminum prices [3]. - Market Situation: Macro - support was strong, with an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. The supply side hyped up the LME warehouse receipt shortage caused by production cuts. However, with the arrival of the off - season, downstream demand weakened, and inventory accumulation pressure increased. The price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [4].