美指预期回调，镍价或有探涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US dollar index is expected to decline, and nickel prices may rise. Macroscopically, although there are significant differences among Federal Reserve officials regarding the pace of interest rate cuts in December, the Challenger job - cut figures released in October soared, indicating a cooling labor market and increasing the expectation of a December interest rate cut. The rising expectation of an interest rate cut may cause the relatively high US dollar index to decline, which is beneficial for nickel prices. Fundamentally, the nickel ore price will remain at an absolute high due to the rainy season in the Surigao mining area in the Philippines and the impact of extreme weather, providing strong cost support. The demand for stainless steel is still at the bottom due to the drag of the real - estate market, while the new - energy market may drive nickel demand. Supply in China is expected to remain high due to the ramping - up of new production capacity. Overall, the fundamentals have no obvious improvement, but the expected decline of the US dollar index may boost nickel prices [3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Last Week | Variety | Price on 2025/11/7 | Price on 2025/10/31 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 119,440 | 120,590 | - 1,150 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15,060 | 15,226 | - 166 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 253,104 | 252,102 | 1,002 | Tons | | SHFE Inventory | 32,634 | 31,388 | 1,246 | Tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 3,100 | 2,550 | 550 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 600 | 450 | 150 | Yuan/ton | | High - Nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 933 | 937 | - 4 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless Steel Inventory | 86.3 | 85.8 | 0.45 | Ten thousand tons | [4] 3.2 Market Review - Macro - level: The US dollar index first rose and then fell. The initial rise was due to the contraction of US dollar liquidity, while the sharp decline at the end of the week was caused by the significant increase in the Challenger job - cut figures in October, which raised the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in December. Federal Reserve officials have different views on the pace of interest rate cuts in December. The manufacturing PMI in October decreased slightly, and the composite index has been below the boom - bust line for 8 consecutive months. The employment data showed that the ADP employment increased by 42,000 in October, and the Challenger job - cut figures reached 153,000 [5]. - Industry - level: - Nickel Ore: Affected by extreme weather in the Philippines, the supply of nickel ore may tighten, and the price remains at an absolute high. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines is 50 US dollars/wet ton, and the FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia decreased slightly to 38.55 US dollars/wet ton [3][6]. - Refined Nickel: In October, the national refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 17.06% and 0.84% respectively. The import volume of refined nickel in September increased significantly, mainly from Russia. The export volume also increased year - on - year. As of October 31, the spot import loss of refined nickel slightly expanded [6][7]. - Nickel Iron: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) decreased by about 0.7% this week. In October, the production of nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia increased. As of November 6, the upstream and downstream inventories of nickel iron increased, the integrated inventory decreased, and the port inventory decreased [7]. - Stainless Steel: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless steel in China and Indonesia increased slightly. The market expects that the production of 300 - series stainless steel in November will change little. As of November 6, the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased. The real - estate market is still at the bottom, dragging down the consumption of stainless steel, and the traditional demand market is difficult to improve significantly [9]. - Nickel Sulfate: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained stable. In October, the production of nickel sulfate and ternary materials increased significantly. The profit margins of some production processes of nickel sulfate improved. In the new - energy market, from October 1 - 31, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles increased year - on - year and month - on - month. However, there is a risk of a decline in demand after the expiration of the purchase - tax window period [10]. - Inventory: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel increased by 9,029 tons compared with the previous period. The SHFE inventory increased by 1,246 tons, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 1,002 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges increased by 2,248 tons [11][13]. 3.3 Industry News - Zeb Nickel obtained the mining license in South Africa and plans to start nickel ore development in 2026, with an expected annual production of 20,000 tons of nickel concentrate [14]. - The side - blown melting furnace of Jinchuan Nickel - Cobalt Smelter completed maintenance and was successfully ignited, marking the end of the flash - furnace system maintenance and the start of a new production cycle [14]. - SMGA, a subsidiary of Sumber Global Energy, entered the nickel smelting business, planning to produce nickel matte and develop a converter nickel - smelting facility using the OESBF technology [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on the trends of domestic and foreign nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [16][18][20][22][24].