复产情绪反复，锂价宽幅震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, market information was noisy, and the resumption expectation of Zhenxiawo Mine was volatile, leading to a wide - range fluctuation of lithium prices. On October 31, rumors of the mine's quick resumption made long - position holders nervous, causing lithium prices to decline with reduced positions. As CATL didn't release a resumption plan, the rumor was unconfirmed, and prices rose again with increased positions at the end of the week. Fundamentally, high - frequency supply reached a new high, but there were bottlenecks in supply growth, inventory continued to decline, and downstream demand for active stockpiling was weak, with only rigid - demand purchases [4]. - In the later stage, the expectation of fundamental improvement continues, and lithium prices will fluctuate widely driven by the resumption expectation of mines. Although there are bottlenecks in supply growth, upstream production enthusiasm is high at current prices. Some capacities are resuming production due to new mining permits, so the total supply will remain at a high level. Material factories' production in November is expected to increase month - on - month, but downstream lithium salt purchasing is cautious, indicating limited market expectations for future lithium price increases. The power terminal will remain strong driven by the policy window, but there is a risk of demand slump at the end of the month when the policy window closes. The fundamental situation will remain warm in the short term. The resumption expectation of CATL's Zhenxiawo Mine may greatly affect market sentiment, leading to wide - range fluctuations in lithium prices [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Indicator | 2025/11/7 | 2025/10/31 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Imported lithium ore (1.3% - 2.2%) | 147 | 150 | - 2.50 | - 1.67% | USD/ton | | Imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 904 | 918 | - 14.00 | - 1.53% | USD/ton | | Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) | 904 | 918 | - 14 | - 1.53% | CNY/ton | | Spot exchange rate: USD to CNY | 7.122 | 7.114 | 0.01 | 0.12% | / | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 8.05 | 8.08 | - 0.03 | - 0.35% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Lithium carbonate main contract price | 7.79 | 7.93 | - 0.14 | - 1.79% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Total lithium carbonate inventory | 121140 | 123777 | - 2637 | - 2.13% | ton | | Lithium iron phosphate price | 3.63 | 3.37 | 0.26 | 7.72% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Lithium cobalt oxide price | 36.20 | 36.20 | 0.00 | 0.00% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Ternary material price (811) | 16.45 | 16.45 | 0.00 | 0.00% | CNY 10,000/ton | | Ternary material price (622) | 14.95 | 14.95 | 0.00 | 0.00% | CNY 10,000/ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulation and Delivery: As of November 7, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of GZFE was 27332 lots, and the latest matching transaction price was 77,920 CNY/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2601 was 490,900 lots [7]. - Supply Side: As of November 7, the weekly lithium carbonate production was 23,465 tons, an increase of 145 tons from the previous period. Although supply growth in Sichuan and Jiangxi was restricted, northern salt - lake capacities resumed production due to new mining permits, and Hunan showed signs of increased production. With more new mining permits approved, supply will remain at a high level. In September, the lithium carbonate import volume was 19,597 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20%. The import volume from Chile was about 10,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%, accounting for about 55.2%. The import volume from Argentina was 6948 tons, a year - on - year increase of 242.9%, accounting for about 35.5%. The average import price from Chile was about 62,400 CNY/ton, and from Argentina was about 59,100 CNY/ton. In September, the total lithium ore import was about 711,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8%. The import from Australia was 347,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.1%; from Zimbabwe was about 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8%; from Nigeria was about 120,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.4%. The import from South Africa increased significantly, reaching about 108,700 tons [7]. - Demand Side: - Downstream Cathode Materials: As of November 7, the total lithium iron phosphate production was about 96,856 tons, with an operating rate of 85.24%, an increase of 7.41 percentage points from the previous period, and inventory of 40,132 tons, a decrease of 541 tons. The total ternary material production was about 19,684 tons, with an operating rate of 51.51%, an increase of 1.31 percentage points from the previous period, and inventory of 12,190 tons, a decrease of 250 tons. In terms of prices, the ternary material price was relatively stable. The price of 5 - series ternary materials increased from 138,900 CNY/ton to 139,100 CNY/ton; the 8 - series price remained stable at 158,100 CNY/ton. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased from 37,200 CNY/ton to 37,150 CNY/ton, and the energy - storage type decreased from 35,500 CNY/ton to 35,350 CNY/ton [8]. - New Energy Vehicles: From October 1 - 31, the retail sales of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. High - frequency data showed that new - energy vehicle sales rebounded significantly at the end of October due to the policy - driven increase in orders and concentrated deliveries. However, there is a risk of demand slump in December when the policy window closes. Most new - force car companies have announced purchase - tax subsidy policies, but only a few traditional car companies have done so, so demand resilience is at risk [9]. - Inventory: As of November 7, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 121,140 tons, a decrease of about 2637 tons from the previous period. Factory inventory was 22,300 tons, a decrease of about 1075 tons; market inventory was 71,508 tons, a decrease of about 1273 tons; and exchange inventory was 27332 lots, a decrease of 289 lots from the previous week [10]. This Week's Outlook The expectation of fundamental improvement continues, and lithium prices will fluctuate widely driven by the resumption expectation of mines. Although there are bottlenecks in supply growth, upstream production enthusiasm is high at current prices. Some capacities are resuming production due to new mining permits, so the total supply will remain at a high level. Material factories' production in November is expected to increase month - on - month, but downstream lithium salt purchasing is cautious, indicating limited market expectations for future lithium price increases. The power terminal will remain strong driven by the policy window, but there is a risk of demand slump at the end of the month when the policy window closes. The fundamental situation will remain warm in the short term. The resumption expectation of CATL's Zhenxiawo Mine may greatly affect market sentiment, leading to wide - range fluctuations in lithium prices [11]. Industry News - A battery - grade lithium carbonate project with an annual output of 80,000 tons in Hunan officially started on October 29. It is an upgrade of the original 40,000 - ton/year plan, and the first - phase 20,000 - ton/year project is expected to be put into production in 2026 [12]. - Haimuxing has successfully completed the full - line process for mass - producing lithium - metal solid - state batteries and has received a 400 - million - CNY equipment order for 2GWh solid - state batteries [12]. - Chuanfa Longmang and Fuling Jinguang will jointly invest in a 175,000 - ton/year high - density lithium iron phosphate project [12]. - Kodal Minerals' Bougouni lithium mine in Mali is operating normally despite the security tensions in the capital [12]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the prices, production, and import volumes of lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related products from 2022 - 2025 [14][16][18][21][23][25].