银河期货每日早盘观察-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to favorable news over the weekend, positive domestic economic data, and continued market activity. However, the high - level volatility of technology stocks may still cause fluctuations [19][20]. - The upward trend of Treasury bond futures has temporarily paused due to the lack of incremental positive factors, weak foreign trade data, and the potential suppression from strong inflation data. The market is expected to be weakly stable in the short term [22]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties face different supply - demand situations. For example, soybeans have supply pressure, sugar has a weak international trend and a domestic oscillating pattern, and the oilseed sector is in a bottom - grinding stage [24][28][32]. - In the black metal market, steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, coking coal and coke may be adjusted in the short term with opportunities to go long after a correction, iron ore should be treated with a bearish mindset, and ferroalloys may have some cost support [57][60][65][67]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals will continue to be range - bound, copper will be in short - term volatile consolidation, alumina is in a bottom - grinding stage, aluminum prices will be strongly volatile, and other metals also have their own specific trends and trading strategies [70][74][77][84]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market Situation: Last week, the market was dominated by price - rising factors and future expectations. The index filled the gaps and then rebounded, and is expected to rise in a volatile manner with the support of positive news and economic data [19]. - Trading Strategy: Do not chase high prices; consider building long positions on dips. Engage in the cash - and - carry arbitrage of IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF. Use bull spreads on dips [20]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Situation: Some macro - indicators in October were mixed. The bond market may be desensitized to weak foreign trade data, but strong inflation data may suppress bond performance. The supply of government bonds will increase next week, and the market sentiment may be affected by the potential bond fund redemption fee regulations [22]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a defensive strategy and wait and see in the short term. Try to go long on the spread between the current and next - quarter contracts and hold short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread [22]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Situation: The international soybean supply is abundant, and the domestic soybean meal has supply pressure in the long - term. The short - term domestic market may face pressure due to losses in crushing profit [24]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a short - selling strategy for the far - month contracts. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell wide - straddle options [25]. Sugar - Market Situation: Internationally, the sugar production in major producing areas is increasing, and the price trend is downward. Domestically, the price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with a long - term weak trend but limited downward space [28][29]. - Trading Strategy: Trade within the range for the domestic market. Short foreign sugar and long Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [29]. Oilseed Sector - Market Situation: Palm oil inventory is expected to gradually decrease but remain at a relatively high level. Domestic palm oil supply is abundant. Soybean oil follows the overall trend of the oilseed market, and rapeseed oil is expected to continue to reduce inventory [32]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see in the short term as there is a lack of bullish drivers. The market may have a technical rebound, but the upside is limited [32]. Corn/Corn Starch - Market Situation: The US corn price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The domestic corn price is stable in the northeast and strong in the port area, with potential short - term downward pressure [35]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on the 12 - month US corn on dips. Go long on the 01 - month domestic corn on dips and wait for dips for the 05 - and 07 - month contracts [36]. Live Hogs - Market Situation: The overall supply pressure of live hogs remains high, although the short - term pressure has slightly eased. The price is expected to face downward pressure [39]. - Trading Strategy: Build a small number of short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell wide - straddle options [40]. Peanuts - Market Situation: Peanut prices are stable in the spot market, and the 01 - month contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term [42]. - Trading Strategy: Go long on the 05 - month contract with a small position and set a stop - loss. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [42]. Eggs - Market Situation: The demand for eggs has improved slightly, but the inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and the upside of the price is limited [46]. - Trading Strategy: Close the previous short positions and wait and see in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [47]. Apples - Market Situation: The new apples are being stored, and the price is mainly stable. The inventory is lower than last year, but the market is at a high level with large differences in views [50]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see due to the high - level price and large differences in views. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Market Situation: The picking of cotton is coming to an end. The supply is expected to increase, but the increase may be lower than expected. The demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile manner [54]. - Trading Strategy: The US cotton is expected to oscillate, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [55]. Black Metals Steel - Market Situation: The supply of rebar is expected to increase, and the demand for all steel products has declined. The price is restricted by the supply - demand structure, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [57]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate within a range. Consider going long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar on dips. Wait and see for options [58][61]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Situation: The production of coking coal mines has decreased slightly, and the demand for iron ore has also declined. The spot price of coking coal is strong, and the fourth - round price increase of coke is expected to be implemented. The price is expected to be adjusted in the short term and has opportunities to go long after a correction [60][63]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see in the short term. Consider going long after a correction in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [64]. Iron Ore - Market Situation: The supply of iron ore remains high in the fourth quarter, and the demand for steel in the domestic market is weak. The price is expected to be bearish [66]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a bearish strategy. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [66]. Ferroalloys - Market Situation: The supply of ferroalloys remains high, and the demand is weak. The cost has some support, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [67][68]. - Trading Strategy: Reduce previous short positions on dips. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [68]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Market Situation: The price of precious metals is affected by both positive and negative factors. The uncertainty of the US government shutdown and economic data affects the price, which is expected to be range - bound [71][73]. - Trading Strategy: Adopt a band - trading strategy. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [73]. Copper - Market Situation: The US government shutdown affects the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. The supply of copper mines is still tight, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be in short - term volatile consolidation [74][75]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see. The ratio may rebound periodically. Wait and see for options [76]. Alumina - Market Situation: The supply of alumina is still in excess, and the market expects production cuts. However, the actual production cuts have not been implemented, and the import pressure remains. The price is in a bottom - grinding stage [81][82]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to oscillate narrowly. If production cuts occur and expand, the price may rebound [82]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Market Situation: The end of the US government shutdown eases market sentiment, and the domestic economic data is stable. The supply - demand of aluminum is tight, and the overseas supply is even more so. The price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner [86][87]. - Trading Strategy: Go long after a correction. Long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [87]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Situation: The end of the US government shutdown eases market sentiment. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cost is rising. The demand is stable and improving. The price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner [90]. - Trading Strategy: Go long after a correction. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [90]. Zinc - Market Situation: The mining end is tight, and the smelting profit is compressed. The export window is open, and the supply surplus may be alleviated. However, the production of new smelters and the export volume are uncertain [92]. - Trading Strategy: Wait and see. Hold the long SHFE zinc and short LME zinc arbitrage positions. Wait and see for options [94]. Lead - Market Situation: The supply of lead is expected to increase as the smelting capacity of recycled lead recovers, while the demand is weakening. The price may decline with the increase of social inventory [96]. - Trading Strategy: Hold previous short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money call options [96]. Nickel - Market Situation: The supply - demand of refined nickel is slightly tightened but overall loose. The cost is loosening, and the price is expected to weaken in a volatile manner [99]. - Trading Strategy: No specific strategy provided in the summary, but the overall view is bearish.