豆粕、豆油期货品种周报-20251110

Report Overview - Report Title: "Futures Varieties Weekly Report: Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil" [2] - Report Date: November 10 - 14, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Views - Soybean Meal: The medium - term trend of soybean meal futures is in a wide - range oscillation phase. Although the optimistic Sino - US trade sentiment boosts the expected import cost, high inventory and weak demand limit the price increase space. In the short - term, the overall trend of soybean meal futures price is in an upward channel, but the capital situation has shifted from strongly bullish to strongly bearish [6][9][10]. - Soybean Oil: The medium - term trend of soybean oil futures is also in a wide - range oscillation phase. High oil factory inventory and weak downstream demand suppress the price, while the easing Sino - US trade relationship drives up the cost of imported soybeans, providing bottom support. In the short - term, the overall trend of soybean oil futures price is in a sideways phase, and the capital situation has shifted from relatively bullish to relatively bearish [28][31]. 3. Summary by Directory Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 44th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2534 million tons, the startup rate was 61.99%, and the soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons. High inventory and weak demand limit price increases, while Sino - US trade sentiment affects import costs [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: Pay attention to Sino - US trade policies, South American weather, and aquaculture demand [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of soybean meal futures price was in an upward channel, and the capital was strongly bullish. The M2601 contract was expected to continue the oscillating and strengthening pattern in the short - term, with an expected operating range of 2950 - 3100 [9]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The overall trend of soybean meal futures price is in an upward channel, but the capital is strongly bearish. The M2601 contract may be in an oscillating adjustment phase in the short - term, with an expected operating range of 2950 - 3150 [10]. 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [17][20][23] Soybean Oil 3.2.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Trend Judgment: The soybean oil main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 44th week, the actual soybean oil output of 125 oil mills was 42,810 tons, and the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.2158 million tons. High inventory and weak demand suppress prices, while the cost of imported soybeans provides support [28]. - Strategy Suggestion: Pay attention to Sino - US trade trends, US biodiesel progress, and South American weather [28]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The overall trend of soybean oil futures price was in a sideways phase, and the capital was relatively bullish. The Y2601 contract was expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short - term [31]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The overall trend of soybean oil futures price is in a sideways phase, and the capital is relatively bearish. The Y2601 contract will maintain the range - bound pattern in the short - term [31]. 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly startup rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazilian premium. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [41][47][50]