10月外贸不及预期，物价有所修复：利率周报（2025.11.3-2025.11.9）-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - In October, foreign trade fell short of expectations, while prices showed some improvement. The economic downward pressure in Q4 may increase. The year - on - year growth of economic data in Q3 slowed down compared to Q1 and Q2, with cumulative year - on - year negative growth in fixed investment, indicating that the traditional investment - driven economic model may face challenges. Consumption and exports may face pressure. Consumer willingness remains weak, and the slow price recovery in October reflects weak domestic economic recovery momentum. Exports may face year - on - year growth pressure in Q4 2025 due to good performance in Q4 2024. The year - on - year foreign trade data in October dropped significantly compared to September. However, the cancellation of fentanyl tariffs and the extension of the reciprocal tariff suspension period between China and the US on October 30 may support foreign trade in November and December. With the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the inverted Sino - US interest rate spread has significantly eased, and the cost rate of banks' interest - bearing liabilities has steadily declined, suggesting that the conditions for a further reduction in policy interest rates may be initially met [2][76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - Price Index: In October, the price index improved. CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and its month - on - month change turned positive. Looking ahead, food prices in Q4 may see a slower decline due to the low base last year, service prices may maintain steady growth, and the prices of daily necessities and services may continue to perform well. PPI's year - on - year decline has narrowed for three consecutive months. From a breakdown perspective, the year - on - year decline in production materials remained flat at - 2.4%, while that in living materials narrowed to - 1.4%, up 0.3 percentage points from September [10][11][16]. - Foreign Trade: In October, the year - on - year growth of imports and exports decreased significantly compared to the previous month, falling short of market expectations. In the first ten months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 37.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, the total value of goods trade was 3.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [20]. 3.2 Meso - level High - frequency Data - Consumption: As of October 31, the daily average retail volume of passenger vehicle manufacturers was 155,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 47.2%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 210,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%. As of November 7, the total box office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days was 207.183 million yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 52.5%. As of October 17, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.724 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 32.4%, and the total retail sales were 4.79 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 35.9% [23][28]. - Transportation: As of November 2, the weekly container throughput at ports was 6.718 million twenty - foot equivalent units, a year - on - year increase of 18.4%. As of November 6, the average daily subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days was 4.0606 million person - times, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. As of November 2, the weekly postal express pick - up volume was 4.28 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and the delivery volume was 4.31 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.0%. The weekly railway freight volume was 78.562 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%, and the number of highway truck passages was 57.572 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [33][36]. - Industrial Operating Rates: As of November 5, the operating rate of blast furnaces in major steel enterprises was 77.8%, a year - on - year increase of 1.4 percentage points. As of November 6, the average operating rate of asphalt was 22.0%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0 percentage points. The operating rate of soda ash was 85.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2 percentage points, and the operating rate of PVC was 80.6%, a year - on - year increase of 4.0 percentage points. As of November 7, the average operating rate of PX was 90.2%, and that of PTA was 77.0% [39][41]. - Real Estate: As of November 7, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.527 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 37.9%. As of October 31, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 9 sample cities was 1.599 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.3% [46][48]. - Prices: As of November 7, the average weekly pork wholesale price was 18.1 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 25.7% and a 4.6% decrease from 4 weeks ago. The average vegetable wholesale price was 5.8 yuan/kg, a year - on - year increase of 9.9% and a 16.6% increase from 4 weeks ago. The average wholesale price of 6 key fruits was 7.1 yuan/kg, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% and a 0.6% increase from 4 weeks ago. The average weekly price of thermal coal at northern ports was 778 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 8.8% and an 11.1% increase from 4 weeks ago. The average weekly spot price of WTI crude oil was 60.3 US dollars/barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 15.5% and a 4.1% decrease from 4 weeks ago. The average weekly spot price of rebar was 3149.9 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2% and a 0.9% decrease from 4 weeks ago. The average weekly spot price of iron ore was 799 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 1.2% and a 0.1% increase from 4 weeks ago [52][56]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - Most bond yields increased. On November 7, the overnight Shibor was 1.33%, up 1.40 BP from November 3. R001 was 1.39%, up 2.54 BP; R007 was 1.47%, up 0.73 BP. DR001 was 1.33%, up 1.73 BP; DR007 was 1.41%, down 0.57 BP. IBO001 was 1.38%, up 2.10 BP; IBO007 was 1.46%, down 0.22 BP. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year/30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%/1.59%/1.82%/2.16% respectively, up 1.8 BP/1.9 BP/1.9 BP/1.6 BP compared to October 31. The yields of 1 - year/5 - year/10 - year local government bonds were 1.48%/1.76%/2.00% respectively, down 0.7 BP/1.3 BP/3.8 BP compared to October 31. The yields of AAA 1 - month/1 - year and AA+ 1 - month/1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.47%/1.64%/1.49%/1.67% respectively, up 6.1 BP/0.5 BP/6.1 BP/0.5 BP compared to October 31. As of November 7, the 10 - year treasury bond yields of the US, Japan, the UK, and Germany were 4.1%, 1.7%, 4.5%, and 2.8% respectively, unchanged/+2 BP/+5 BP/+4 BP compared to October 31. The central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.08/7.12 respectively, down 44/+90 pips compared to October 31 [58][62][71]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - Since the beginning of 2025, the duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds has shown a trend of first decreasing, then increasing, and then decreasing. It has been decreasing overall in the past two months and increased this week. On November 7, 2025, the estimated average duration was around 5.0 years, and the estimated median duration was around 4.4 years, an increase of about 0.01 years compared to October 31. The duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds has shown a volatile trend. It increased and then rapidly decreased in the past month and continued to decline rapidly this week. On November 7, 2025, the estimated average and median durations were around 2.1 years, a decrease of about 0.1 years compared to October [73][75]. 3.5 Investment Suggestion - The bond market trend may deviate from the fundamentals in the short term but cannot do so in the long term. Currently, the bond market has significant allocation value, and bond yields may decline fluctuantly. According to seasonal patterns, treasury bond yields usually decline significantly in November and December. Due to weak domestic consumption willingness and the start of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the policy interest rate may be cut by 20 BP in the next six months. The central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading may have set the upper limit for bond yields, and future pricing may reflect the expected policy - rate cut. The report continues to be bullish on the bond market, predicting that the yield of 10Y treasury bonds will return to around 1.65%, the yield of 30Y treasury bonds will reach 1.9%, and the yield of 5Y secondary capital bonds of large banks will reach 1.9% (all referring to bonds without VAT) by the end of the year [76][79].