甲醇周报（MA）：供需偏松价弱，库存维持高位-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is a weak and volatile outlook [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall supply of methanol was abundant, with high inventory levels and slow de - stocking, exerting significant downward pressure on prices. The demand was weak and differentiated, providing only limited support to the market. Although the cost side was supported by relatively strong raw materials, the production profit was under pressure, and the support was limited. The market sentiment was generally cautious, and the short - term price was likely to continue the weak and volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see or seek opportunities within a certain range instead of aggressively short - selling [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - This week, the domestic methanol supply remained abundant. The industry's operating load increased slightly, especially in the Northwest region. The capacity utilization rates of mainstream production processes such as coal - based and coke - oven gas - based methanol increased. Although some plants were newly shut down or continued to be out of operation, more plants resumed production, and the overall output showed an upward trend. The import volume was stable, and the port arrivals were sufficient. Coupled with the high previous inventory, the market supply was well - supported. Inland enterprises were eager to sell, and the flow of goods between ports and inland areas was smooth [2] Demand - This week, the downstream demand for methanol was generally weak and differentiated. The demand from the main downstream olefin (CTO/MTO) sector had some local support, and the purchasing willingness of some enterprises increased slightly. However, the overall industry operation did not improve significantly, and the incremental consumption of methanol was limited. The traditional downstream sectors performed differently. The operating loads of formaldehyde and MTBE increased slightly, while those of dimethyl ether and acetic acid decreased, and DMF remained stable. Most traditional products only met their rigid demand and had a weak willingness to increase purchases actively. The downstream buying interest at ports was insufficient, and although the local demand in inland areas improved slightly due to olefin procurement, it was not a widespread phenomenon. Overall, the demand side provided weak support to the methanol market [2] Inventory - This week, the methanol inventory was under high - level pressure. The port inventory remained at a historically high level. Although the unloading rhythm in some areas and the提货 volume in individual warehouses fluctuated slightly, the overall de - stocking speed was slow. With sufficient future arrivals, the port inventory pressure was not effectively relieved. The inventory in some ports in East China increased slightly, and that in South China adjusted slightly. The inland market inventory was differentiated. Most enterprises' inventories accumulated, while only a few regions saw a slight decline in inventory due to supply reduction caused by plant maintenance. Affected by sufficient supply, weak demand, and the back - flow of low - priced port goods, inland enterprises faced difficulties in selling, and the overall inventory remained at a relatively high level [2] Profit - This week, the overall profit of methanol was under pressure, and different production processes showed different performances. The profit of coal - based methanol shrank significantly as the rising price of raw coal pushed up production costs while the spot price of methanol declined, squeezing the profit margin. The profit of coke - oven gas - based methanol also decreased, and the loss of natural - gas - based methanol widened. The cost pressure was continuously transmitted to the production end. The profit of downstream sectors improved locally. Some products saw a slight improvement in profit due to the decline in methanol prices or their own supply - demand adjustments, but most downstream industries were still in the loss range, and the profit transmission in the entire industrial chain was not smooth, with no obvious improvement in the profitability [2] Macro and Geopolitical Factors - Iranian President Pezeshkian stated in a recent speech that the United States armed Israel while telling Iran not to have missiles or the right to self - defense. Iran does not want war but will not allow other countries to violate its rights. Pezeshkian also said that Iran has no intention of manufacturing nuclear weapons and is willing to negotiate within the framework of international law, but will not accept humiliation [2] Investment View - It is expected that the short - term price of methanol will continue the weak and volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking rhythm and plant start - stop dynamics. It is not recommended to aggressively short - sell, and it is advisable to wait and see or seek opportunities within a certain range [2] Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, it is recommended to wait and see with a bearish view; for arbitrage, it is also recommended to wait and see [2]