海外策略周报：震荡延续，静待催化-20251110

Core Insights - The report indicates that the ongoing U.S. government "shutdown" is causing liquidity concerns and economic data shortages, leading to downward pressure on dollar assets, with declines observed in U.S. stocks, the dollar, gold, and oil prices. Specifically, the MSCI global index fell by 1.48%, while major U.S. indices such as the Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 dropped by 3.0%, 1.6%, 1.2%, and 1.9% respectively [2][11][21] - The report highlights a mild rebound in U.S. employment data, with October ADP employment figures showing an increase of 42,000 jobs, surpassing expectations of 30,000, following two months of declines. Key sectors driving this growth include trade, transportation, utilities, education, and healthcare services [3][5][6] - The report notes a mixed performance in the service and manufacturing sectors, with service sector indicators (ISM and Markit PMIs) showing improvement, while manufacturing indicators displayed divergence [6][21] Market Overview - The report outlines that the U.S. stock market is experiencing increased volatility due to liquidity concerns stemming from the government shutdown, alongside a lack of economic data to catalyze market movements. High valuations in the tech sector are also raising concerns, contributing to the market's downward trend [21][22] - In the Hong Kong market, stocks are in a state of fluctuation as investors await earnings reports from technology companies. The Hang Seng Index and other indices showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.3% while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.2% [31][37] - The report suggests that the market is likely to remain in a state of fluctuation until new catalysts emerge, particularly in the tech sector, which is expected to continue its positive trajectory if high industry growth rates are confirmed [2][31][37] Sector Performance - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1) Growth sectors with improving prospects such as AI, internet, and semiconductors; 2) Sectors expected to see improved conditions like new energy, building materials, and traditional cyclical industries; 3) New consumption areas benefiting from domestic policy support and changes in consumer spending patterns [2][37] - In the U.S. market, the energy sector led gains with a 1.5% increase, while technology-related sectors faced significant declines, with information technology down by 4.2% [26][29] - The report also highlights that the Hong Kong market is seeing a shift in capital flows, with increased inflows from southbound funds while foreign capital is turning to outflows [43][44]