燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：天气转冷美国、欧洲气价上涨，中国供应充足气价微降-20251110

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that colder weather has led to rising gas prices in the US and Europe, while China's gas supply remains sufficient, resulting in a slight decrease in domestic gas prices [4][9] - The overall supply is adequate, and the impact of cold weather on demand is unclear, with domestic gas prices showing a week-on-week decline of 0.6% [22] - The report emphasizes the ongoing optimization of cost structures for gas companies and the continued adjustment of pricing mechanisms, which are expected to support demand growth [51] Price Tracking - As of November 7, 2025, gas prices have changed week-on-week as follows: US HH +4.8%, European TTF +3%, East Asia JKM +1.2%, China LNG ex-factory -0.6%, and China LNG CIF +0.2% [4][9] - The report notes that the price gap between domestic and international markets has ended, indicating a more balanced pricing environment [9] Supply and Demand Analysis - In the US, gas market prices increased by 4.8% week-on-week, with storage levels rising by 33 billion cubic feet to 39,150 billion cubic feet as of October 31, 2025 [15] - European gas prices rose by 3.0% week-on-week, with a total consumption of 2,654 billion cubic meters from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5% [16] - Domestic gas consumption from January to September 2025 increased by 0.7% year-on-year to 318.8 billion cubic meters, attributed to warmer winter conditions in 2024 affecting heating demand [22][25] Pricing Progress - Nationwide, 65% of cities have implemented residential pricing adjustments, with an average increase of 0.21 yuan per cubic meter [33] - The report indicates that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment in the gas distribution sector, suggesting ongoing pricing reforms [33] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, highlighting key companies such as: - Xin'ao Energy (dividend yield 4.7%) - China Gas (dividend yield 5.8%) - Kunlun Energy (dividend yield 4.7%) [51][52] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xin'ao Shares [52][53]