格林大华期货早盘提示：甲醇-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Methanol downstream shows a situation of not prosperous in the peak - season. This week, the port inventories increased slightly and remained above 1.5 million tons, and the production area also saw inventory accumulation. The import volume in September decreased by 18.9% month - on - month, and it is expected to be around 1.5 million tons in October. It is expected that 3 MTO plants will be shut down for maintenance from November to December. Affected by news, the futures price is consolidating at a low level, and the methanol in the real - world market is still under pressure, with a reference range of 2,080 - 2,170 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to partially take profit on previous short positions and hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract dropped 16 yuan to 2,103 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the eastern mainstream area rose 10 yuan to 2,090 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 22,183 lots to 801,100 lots, and short positions increased by 22,508 lots to 1,043,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Supply - The domestic methanol operating rate is 87.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 72%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% [1] 3.2.2 Inventory - The total inventory of methanol ports in China is 1.5216 million tons, an increase of 15,100 tons. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 28,700 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 13,600 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.75% [1] 3.2.3 Demand - The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 51,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,700 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 221,100 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.57%. The olefin operating rate is 90.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 5.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 63.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.1%; the acetic acid operating rate is 69.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 41.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%; the MTBE operating rate is 68.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% [1] 3.2.4 Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, which is the second consecutive meeting to cut interest rates, meeting market expectations and the fifth interest rate cut since September 2024 [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Methanol downstream is not prosperous in the peak - season. This week, port inventories increased slightly and remained above 1.5 million tons, and the production area also saw inventory accumulation. The import volume in September decreased by 18.9% month - on - month, and it is expected to be around 1.5 million tons in October. It is expected that 3 MTO plants will be shut down for maintenance from November to December. Affected by news, the futures price is consolidating at a low level, and the methanol in the real - world market is still under pressure, with a reference range of 2,080 - 2,170 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Partially take profit on previous short positions and hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [1]