液化石油气（LPG）投资周报：美国货进口预期增强，PG盘面震荡整理运行-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LPG futures market is expected to continue its oscillatory consolidation this week due to coastal cooling and increasing chemical demand. There are still traditional heating expectations in the market, causing the far - month prices to be stronger and the monthly spread to decline. The PG - SC ratio remains high. In the short term, the driving logic of PG is unclear, and the fundamentals remain tight. Attention should be paid to the price trends of crude oil and natural gas, as well as overseas fundamental changes [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy Chemical Product Price Monitoring - The report provides the closing price, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes of various energy - chemical products, including exchange rates, precious metals, crude oil, and chemical products. For example, the current price of LPG is 4272 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.16%, a weekly decrease of 0.49%, a monthly increase of 4.96%, and an annual decrease of 3.09% [3]. 3.2 LPG Market Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG decreased by 2.19% to about 519,000 tons, with industrial gas at 58,000 tons (-1.77%), and civil gas at 173,000 tons (-1.21%). The arrival volume of LPG was 72,000 tons (-29.35%). Some enterprises in Shandong and North China carried out device maintenance, and only one enterprise in the Northeast resumed production, leading to a decline in domestic commercial volume. International prices generally fell, and due to poor chemical profits and tight supply - demand of non - US goods, some Chinese buyers intended to purchase US goods [4]. 3.2.2 Demand - In winter, the heating demand for LPG is gradually increasing, and the combustion demand is improving, with a slow recovery in overall demand. In the C4 deep - processing sector, the resumption of maleic anhydride units downstream of n - butane in November may drive up demand, but the profit of deep - processing units is under pressure, which restricts the rebound of raw material prices. In the isobutane sector, the operation of dehydrogenation units has improved the demand. In the propane deep - processing sector, demand has increased month - on - month, and the operating rate has returned to a high level, but recent sharp increases in raw material prices and unchanged terminal demand have led to continuous losses in device profits, dampening the enthusiasm of enterprises [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the LPG inventory in factories was 418,800 tons (-0.18%), and the port inventory was 298,000 tons (-3.65%). Refineries in various regions were generally stable. Some regions improved sales through price advantages, while others withheld sales due to low - supply expectations. Port arrivals decreased, and with the improvement of chemical demand as the temperature dropped, the overall demand increased, resulting in a significant reduction in port inventory [4]. 3.2.4 Basis and Position - The average weekly basis was 81.80 yuan/ton in East China, 94.20 yuan/ton in South China, and 150.20 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts increased by 250 to 4444 lots, and the lowest deliverable area was East China [4]. 3.2.5 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, alkylation, and MTBE were 75.45%, 56.50%, and 41.60% respectively. The profits of PDH - made propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong were - 461 yuan/ton, - 679 yuan/ton, and - 151 yuan/ton respectively [4]. 3.2.6 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.27 (-0.90%), and the PG secondary - to - main monthly spread was 72 yuan/ton (-10.00%). In the fourth quarter, gas prices remained strong, while crude oil trended downward, and the oil - gas cracking spread maintained high - level oscillations [4]. 3.2.7 Other Factors - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee clarified the development goals and key tasks for the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. Positive progress was made in the China - US summit in Busan, with the US making a series of commitments to suspend or cancel tariffs, export controls, and industrial investigations against China. Military confrontation between the US and Venezuela intensified, and there were continuous market news disturbances. Russian energy facilities were attacked, and there were expectations of maintenance for some cracking units in Japan and South Korea. The US and Europe imposed sanctions on two Russian refineries, and India re - planned its energy procurement plan [4]. 3.3 Investment and Trading Strategies - Investment view: The LPG market is expected to oscillate. In the short term, the driving logic is unclear, and the fundamentals remain tight. - Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, go long on PG2604 and short on PG2603. Attention should be paid to China - US tariffs, US sanctions against Russia, freight rate changes, and device changes [4]. 3.4 Other Information - The report also provides information on LPG futures price trends, regional spot prices and basis, factory and PDH device maintenance plans, and various price spread data for different regions and products [5][8][9][10][12].