产销双降，品种结构分化

Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products [1] - Date: November 10, 2025 [3] - Author: Bai Jing [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Currently, the production and sales of in - table steel products are both decreasing, with a differentiation in the product structure. The production of rebar has decreased month - on - month, and the inventory has been continuously depleted. The decline in hot - rolled coil demand is faster than the decline in production, and the social inventory has accumulated again. The supply - demand structure of hot - rolled coils is weaker than that of rebar, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has shrunk. Overall, the supply - demand gap at the finished - product end is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. High production has led to slow inventory depletion, and the current profit per ton of steel is continuously shrinking. There is an expectation of a continued decline in molten iron. Recently, attention should be paid to the production reduction situation. In the short term, the main rebar contract may continue to test the support of the integer - point level, and cautious operation is recommended [8]. Summary by Directory I. Supply and Demand Fundamentals 1. Price and Output - Last week, domestic steel spot prices fluctuated weakly. As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3160 yuan (- 40), and the price of hot - rolled coils was 3260 yuan (- 90). On November 6, the overall output of five major steel products decreased by 18.55 tons. The factory inventory of the five major products decreased by 8.09 tons month - on - month, and the social inventory decreased by 2.08 tons. The apparent demand was 866.91 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.51 tons [7]. 2. Profit - As of November 7, in the long - process spot end, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3176 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of about - 16 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 33.5 yuan. At the electric - furnace end, the cost of flat - rate electricity for electric furnaces in East China was about 3320 yuan, and the cost of off - peak electricity was about 3177 yuan. The profit of rebar with flat - rate electricity was about - 220 yuan, and the profit with off - peak electricity was about - 77 yuan [7]. 3. Scrap Steel - As of November 6, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2170 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 34.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 51 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 tons. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 24.3 tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66 tons; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 tons, an increase of 1.6%. In terms of supply, the average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 50.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.35 tons, an increase of 7.1%. In terms of inventory, the total scrap - steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 485.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.21 tons, an increase of 3.5% [8]. 4. Macro - economic Data - In 2024, according to the statistics bureau's caliber, the crude - steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons compared to 2023, a decrease of 1.7%; the pig - iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons compared to 2023, a decrease of 2.3%. From January to September 2025, according to the statistics bureau's caliber, the cumulative pig - iron output was 646 million tons, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the same period in 2024, and the cumulative crude - steel output was 746 million tons, a decrease of 2.9% compared to the same period in 2024 [17]. - In October 2025, the PMI was 49%. - From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. In September, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) increased by - 4.65% year - on - year; manufacturing investment increased by - 1.92% year - on - year; real - estate development investment increased by - 21.28% [26]. - From January to September, the floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises was 6,485.8 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. Among them, the floor area under construction of residential buildings was 4,521.65 million square meters, a decrease of 9.7%. The floor area of newly started buildings of real - estate development enterprises was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. Among them, the floor area of newly started residential buildings was 332.73 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The floor area of completed buildings was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. Among them, the floor area of completed residential buildings was 222.28 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% [29]. II. Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - This week, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has shrunk [39]. III. Supply Analysis 1. Long - process Supply - As of November 7, the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 87.8%, a decrease of 0.80 percentage points compared to October 31, a decrease of 0.90%; the average daily molten - iron output was 234.2 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons compared to October 31, a decrease of 0.91% [42]. 2. Short - process Supply - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - furnace plants was 34.1% (+ 0.5). As of November 7, the price difference between pig iron and scrap steel was - 4.4 yuan (- 22.11) [45]. IV. Product - specific Analysis 1. Rebar - This week, the original sample output of rebar was 208.54 tons (- 4.05). Among them, the long - process output was 179.29 tons (- 3.79), and the short - process output was 29.25 tons (- 0.26). The original sample rebar factory inventory was 166.84 tons (- 4.87), the social inventory was 425.7 tons (- 5.11), and the total inventory was 592.54 tons (- 9.98) [57][73]. 2. Hot - rolled Coils - The output of hot - rolled coils this week was 318.16 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4 tons. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 314.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.59 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 0.23 tons, the social inventory increased by 4.09 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 3.86 tons [76]. 3. Export - As of November 7, the FOB export price in China was 440 US dollars (-), and the export profit was - 23.3 US dollars (+ 9). The outbound volume from 32 major domestic ports was 2.9185 million tons (- 503,400 tons), a month - on - month decrease of 14.7% [87].