Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-11-10 06:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the PTA industry, indicating a potential for recovery but highlighting ongoing challenges in profitability [4][10]. Core Insights - The PTA industry has been experiencing prolonged losses, with a significant decline in profitability expected in 2025 due to increased production capacity and a negative gross margin of -319 RMB/ton as of November 7 [4][6]. - An increase in maintenance schedules for PTA facilities is anticipated, which may lead to a tightening of supply and a potential recovery in profitability if production cuts are realized [6][8]. - The report suggests that the polyester sector may see a recovery in profitability as supply and demand dynamics improve, particularly for leading companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The PTA industry has been in a state of oversupply since 2022, leading to consistent losses across the sector, with only a few companies managing to achieve marginal profits [4][6]. - Recent data indicates that the industry operating rate is at 78%, reflecting a weak market environment [8]. 2. Maintenance and Supply Dynamics - Several PTA facilities are undergoing planned maintenance, including major players like Yisheng Dihua and Sichuan Energy Investment, which may further restrict supply in the short term [6][7]. - The report notes that if leading PTA companies continue to implement production cuts, the industry could see a return to breakeven profitability levels, with potential profit margins of 200-300 RMB per ton [8]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading polyester companies and high-quality refining firms, suggesting that companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical may benefit from improved market conditions [10]. - It also highlights the potential for recovery in the oil and gas sector, particularly for offshore service companies, as capital expenditures remain high [10].