Orient Securities·2025-11-10 06:29Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing overseas electricity shortages with Chinese solutions, particularly in the context of rising industrial electricity costs due to increasing energy prices in major countries [9][14]. - It highlights the potential for significant growth in the electrolytic aluminum sector driven by export demand, as overseas power supply issues lead to production cuts [14]. - The report also points out investment opportunities in the special steel sector, particularly related to advancements in nuclear fusion technology [15]. - The lithium carbonate sector is expected to benefit from a surge in overseas energy storage demand, with prices across the supply chain showing signs of recovery [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report suggests that electrolytic aluminum, special steel, and lithium carbonate are primarily driven by domestic demand, but it presents a contrasting view that focuses on overseas electricity shortages as a growth opportunity [9][13]. - The electrolytic aluminum sector is poised for a revaluation due to strong production cut expectations stemming from overseas electricity shortages [14]. - The special steel sector is highlighted for its potential growth linked to nuclear fusion advancements, with significant demand expected for materials that can withstand extreme conditions [15]. - The lithium carbonate sector is experiencing a price rebound, with recent contracts indicating a positive outlook for the entire supply chain [16]. 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry is facing short-term profitability pressures, with slight declines in iron and steel production noted [17][19]. - Inventory levels for both social and steel mill stocks are decreasing, indicating a tightening supply [24]. - The report notes a general decline in steel prices, with various product categories experiencing price drops [34]. - Cost pressures are evident, with mixed trends in raw material prices impacting profitability across different steel production processes [27][30]. 3. New Energy Metals - The report indicates a significant year-on-year increase in lithium carbonate production, reflecting a robust supply response to market demand [39]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with production and sales figures showing substantial growth [43]. - Price trends for lithium and nickel are mixed, with lithium prices experiencing a notable decline while cobalt prices have seen increases [48][50].