国泰海通晨报-20251110

Macro Research - The core inflation and overall CPI have been diverging since the beginning of the year, driven by anti-involution governance, fiscal support, and rising gold prices, which are beneficial for the long-term recovery of core inflation [2][5] - In October, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month, while the PPI decreased by 2.1% year-on-year but rebounded to 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a steady recovery in inflation [3][16] Overseas Strategy Research - The recent strengthening of the US dollar is primarily due to the US government shutdown causing liquidity issues, hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, and weakness in non-US currencies [6][25] - Historically, a strong dollar has led to capital outflows from Hong Kong stocks, and under the currency peg system, it may temporarily affect local liquidity and sectors in Hong Kong [7][26] - Short-term focus should be on the reopening of the US government and economic data, while mid-term prospects for Hong Kong stocks are optimistic, particularly in the technology sector [8][27] Transportation Industry Research - The Chinese aviation sector is expected to enter a "super cycle" as supply and demand gradually recover, with a significant increase in profitability anticipated [9][10] - The supply side is constrained by airspace bottlenecks, leading to a low growth environment, while demand is expected to remain robust due to the ongoing aviation population dividend [11][10] - The recovery in demand will drive ticket prices higher, contributing to a sustainable increase in profitability for airlines [10][11]