尿素早评：出口预期再起-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The previous trading day's urea futures opened higher and fluctuated. Market news indicated that the fourth export quota for urea had been finalized at approximately 600,000 tons. Although this is not a large amount compared to the current urea supply, it helps alleviate domestic supply - demand pressure. The winter storage of urea will gradually start nationwide in the fourth quarter, and the rebound of urea at a low valuation is in line with previous judgments. The 12 - contract option is about to expire, and it is advisable to consider gradually taking profits on the sold put options [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Price Changes - Urea Futures Prices: On November 7, UR01 in Shanxi was 1,667 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan or 1.40% from November 6), UR05 was 1,734 yuan/ton (up 7 yuan or 0.41%), UR09 was 1,753 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan or 0.17%). In Shandong, the futures price was 1,600 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan or 1.27%) [1] - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule): In Shandong, it was 1,600 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan or 1.27%); in Henan, 1,600 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan or 1.91%); in Hebei and Northeast, unchanged at 1,590 yuan/ton and 1,610 yuan/ton respectively; in Jiangsu, 1,580 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.64%) [1] - Upstream Costs: The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream Prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2,900 yuan/ton and 2,500 yuan/ton respectively. The melamine price in Shandong was 5,083 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan or 0.20%), and in Jiangsu, it remained unchanged at 5,150 yuan/ton [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 134 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan from November 6), and the spread of 01 - 05 was - 67 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan) [1] 3. Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,665 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,679 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,656 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,667 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,668 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 268,588 lots [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Consider gradually taking profits on the sold put options of the 12 - contract [1]