甲醇日评：低估值，弱驱动-20251110

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term judgment on methanol is low - level oscillation. Methanol's absolute price and relative valuation are already on the low side, so it is not advisable to continue short - selling from a valuation perspective. The short - term upward drive is limited due to two factors: the winter gas restriction in Iran is less than expected, and the port inventory pressure is difficult to reduce; the raw material methanol inventory of MTO enterprises is relatively high in the past five years, and the downstream replenishment motivation is temporarily insufficient. Considering the cost support of winter coal, the gas - restriction expectation of inland gas - to - methanol, and the rising option volatility, selling out - of - the - money put options is appropriate [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Price Information - Futures Prices: MA01 closed at 2112 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.61%); MA05 closed at 2213 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (-0.58%); MA09 closed at 2228 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.09%) [1]. - Spot Prices: Prices in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price in Taicang increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.24%), and in Shandong it increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (0.58%), while in Guangdong, Shaanxi, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia, the prices remained unchanged [1]. - Price Differences: The difference between Taicang spot and MA increased by 18 yuan/ton. The price of some coal types also increased, such as Datong Q5500 increasing by 17.5 yuan/ton (2.60%) and Yulin Q6000 increasing by 10 yuan/ton (1.49%) [1]. b. Cost and Profit Information - Upstream Costs: The prices of industrial natural gas in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged. The coal - to - methanol profit decreased by 12.6 yuan/ton (-10.04%), and the natural - gas - to - methanol profit remained at - 1100 yuan/ton [1]. - Profit Situations: The profit of Northwest MTO decreased by 25 yuan/ton (-21.48%), while the profit of East China MTO increased by 61 yuan/ton (11.00%). The profits of some downstream products such as acetic acid and MTBE increased, with acetic acid increasing by 18.57 yuan/ton (4.74%) and MTBE increasing by 23.6 yuan/ton (6.15%) [1]. c. Important Information - Domestic Futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 fluctuated within a range, opening at 2122 yuan/ton, closing at 2112 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 915,795 lots and an open interest of 1,390,818 lots, showing a decrease in volume and an increase in open interest [1]. - Foreign Information: In other regions of the Middle East, the reference negotiation for ship cargoes was - 4 - 2%, the buyers' intended bids were - 4 - 5%, and the sellers' intended offers were - 2 - 2.5%. The CFR China price was in the range of 235 - 248 US dollars/ton [1].