2026年度国防军工行业策略报告：十五五开局之年，关注订单增长与军贸提速-20251110

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector has seen a recovery, with a year-to-date increase of 15.32% as of November 5, 2025, compared to a 17.60% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 26.97% increase in the Shenzhen Component Index [1][20] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the sector achieved a total revenue of 4510.81 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 244.53 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year [1][26] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has led to the execution of backlog orders, driving revenue and profit growth for military enterprises, while the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to release new orders, enhancing industry prosperity [2][42] - The international geopolitical situation is increasingly tense, providing a strategic window for the expansion of China's military trade market, with exports showing significant growth in both quantity and quality [3][43] Group 3 - Key recommended companies include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, Hongdu Aviation Industry Group, Guoke Technology, and Lianchuang Optoelectronics, focusing on sectors such as advanced aircraft manufacturing and missile systems [3][5] - The military budget for 2025 has increased to 17846.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.15%, supporting the modernization of military equipment [40][44] Group 4 - The military aircraft sector is expected to benefit from the construction of air and naval forces, with significant advancements in aircraft technology, including the introduction of the J-35A stealth fighter and the development of the sixth-generation fighter [45][46] - Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are becoming a key component of modern warfare, with their roles expanding from reconnaissance to offensive operations, highlighting their importance in future military strategies [58][61]