Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The bond market has shown a volatile downward trend recently due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The central bank's restart of open - market Treasury bond trading and the marginal weakening of macro - data have strengthened the expectation of policy easing, providing core support for the bond market. However, the strengthening of the equity market and the approaching implementation of the "Sales New Rules" have caused short - term disturbances to market sentiment. Despite short - term disturbances, the core logic supporting the bond market's improvement at the end of the year remains solid. As the suppression from the equity market eases and market forces undergo structural changes, bond market sentiment is expected to continue to recover, and short - term fluctuations may present good allocation opportunities [2][87][88]. - The central bank's open - market Treasury bond trading in October was relatively restrained. It is a regular operation to enrich the liquidity - injection toolbox, bringing longer - term and cheaper funds to the market, which is expected to maintain overall market liquidity and ease the fund - stratification phenomenon. The weakening of October's economic data may lead to a marginal increase in the market's expectation of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts, which could boost the year - end "long" sentiment in the bond market. The independent strength of the A - share market has temporarily boosted risk appetite and suppressed the bond market, but this suppression may be only temporary at the end of the year. The approaching implementation of the "Sales New Rules" has recently increased short - term market disturbances, but there is a possibility of a "sell - the - rumor, buy - the - news" market trend after the policy is officially implemented. Market forces are undergoing structural changes, with the active trading forces retreating, while rural commercial banks, which were previously conservative, have started to replenish their positions significantly, which is important for warming market sentiment and restoring confidence [2][88]. - If there is no increase in the expectation of interest - rate cuts to catalyze the bond - market rally, the market may show a narrow - range downward oscillation from November to December. Considering the weakening economic data, the market's expectation of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts may increase marginally, boosting the year - end "long" sentiment in the bond market. It is conservatively estimated that the lower limits of the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds (old bonds) may be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to set the portfolio duration in the medium - to - long range. For allocation, it is advisable to select high - quality coupon - bearing assets as the bottom - position, adopting the "coupon + carry - trade" income approach, and exploring the allocation opportunities of 2 - year AA -/AA - rated credit bonds and 10 - year local government bonds. For trading, it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities of medium - duration varieties such as secondary perpetual bonds that have experienced significant declines [2][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Important Matters - In October, the central bank's open - market Treasury bond trading net - injected 20 billion yuan of liquidity. Through various central - bank loans, a total of 174.8 billion yuan of liquidity was injected, and through various open - market operations, a total of - 205.3 billion yuan of liquidity was injected. Among them, the net - injection scale of open - market Treasury bond trading reached 20 billion yuan [5]. - In November, the 3 - month term buy - back repurchase was carried out at the same volume. On November 5, 2025, the central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan buy - back repurchase operation with a 3 - month (91 - day) term, and the maturity scale of the 3 - month term buy - back repurchase in November was also 700 billion yuan [6]. - From January to October 2025, China's total import and export value was 37.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, China's export value in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the import value increased by 1.0% year - on - year [8]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open - Market Operations and Fund - Rate Trends - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the central bank injected 495.8 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, with 2068 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net - injection of - 1572.2 billion yuan. From November 10 to November 14, 2025, it is expected that 495.8 billion yuan of base money will be matured and withdrawn. The policy rate of the 7 - day open - market reverse - repurchase was 1.40% from November 3 to November 7. As of November 7, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.392%, 1.468%, 1.332%, and 1.413% respectively, with changes of - 1.53BP, - 2.46BP, 1.37BP, and - 4.21BP compared to October 31. The interest - rate centers also changed to some extent [11][12][15]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market of CDs, last week, the total CD issuance scale was 527.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 206.66 billion yuan from the previous week. The maturity scale was 376.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 187.44 billion yuan from the previous week, and the net - financing scale was 150.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.22 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the 45th week of 2025, the cumulative annual CD issuance scale had reached 29.04 trillion yuan. The institution with the largest CD issuance scale last week was city commercial banks, with a net - financing scale of 182.16 billion yuan. The CD issuance scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 118.15 billion yuan, 127.78 billion yuan, 237.78 billion yuan, and 48.69 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 22.2%, 24.0%, 44.7%, and 9.1% of the total issuance. The CD issuance rates of various types of banks decreased to some extent compared to the previous week [18][21][24]. - In the secondary market of CDs, the yields of CDs of all maturities increased overall. The yields of AAA - rated 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs increased by 6.05BP, 1.13BP, 0.73BP, 0.37BP, and 0.50BP respectively, and the 1Y - 3M spread was at the 54.41% quantile level [28]. 3. Bond Market - In the primary market, last week, the supply of discounted Treasury bonds and short - term Treasury bonds increased. A total of 54 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 513.997 billion yuan and a net - financing amount of 318.843 billion yuan. From January to November, the net - financing pace of local government bonds was generally faster than that of Treasury bonds. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative net - financing scale of various Treasury bonds was about 5.85 trillion yuan, and that of various local bonds was about 6.44 trillion yuan, with a more obvious increase in the supply scale of central - government finances compared to the 2021 - 2024 average [31]. - In the secondary market, the bullish market of the restarted Treasury bond trading has temporarily ended. As the implementation of the "Sales New Rules" approaches, interest rates have generally shown a volatile upward trend. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds and the corresponding yields of China Development Bank bonds have all changed to some extent. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds increased slightly. The liquidity premium of active bonds has generally increased. The average spread between the active and sub - active bonds of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds was about - 6BP [31][45]. - The supply of Treasury bonds increased significantly last week. Among them, 5 Treasury bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 295.89 billion yuan and a net - financing amount of 225.8 billion yuan; 32 local government bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 91.607 billion yuan and a net - financing amount of - 5.457 billion yuan; 17 policy - financial bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 126.5 billion yuan and a net - financing amount of 98.5 billion yuan. As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds had reached 2.06 trillion yuan, mainly with long - and ultra - long - term maturities, and the issuance scale of bonds with maturities of 10 years and above was about 1.81 trillion yuan, accounting for about 88.02%. Regions with relatively large issuance scales include Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Henan, accounting for about 35.67% of the total issuance scale [40][42]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading fluctuated around a high - level center, with an average of about 7.97 trillion yuan. In the cash - bond market, the buying power of state - owned banks weakened, and they continued to prefer to increase their holdings of Treasury bonds with maturities of less than 5 years, but the buying scale decreased compared to the previous week. Rural commercial banks changed from selling to buying, with a total weekly increase in holdings of less than 5 billion yuan, which was a significant improvement compared to the previous week's net - selling of over 124 billion yuan. The承接 power of funds weakened, and securities companies sold about 31 billion yuan net. In contrast, the insurance industry's willingness to increase its holdings increased marginally, and it increased its holdings of policy - financial bonds with maturities of over 5 years [61][71]. - In September 2025, the overall inter - bank market institutional leverage ratio was about 118.68%, an increase of about 0.06 percentage points from August. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities companies, and other institutions in the inter - bank market in September were about 109.85%, 192.23%, and 133.25% respectively [61]. - The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase last week was 7.37 trillion yuan, a change of about 430 billion yuan from the previous week. The average scale of leveraged trading last week was about 7.97 trillion yuan, and the daily leveraged - trading scales from November 3 to November 7 were 7.69 trillion yuan, 7.93 trillion yuan, 8.09 trillion yuan, 8.42 trillion yuan, and 7.72 trillion yuan respectively [67]. - Based on the net - buying data of institutional investors in the past 20 trading days, the recent average cost of adding positions in 10 - year Treasury bonds for major trading players such as rural commercial banks, securities companies, funds, and other products is around 1.830%. Rural commercial banks' behavior of adding positions at high prices was obvious last week, while the position - adding actions of securities companies and funds cooled down [74]. - According to the calculation methods in relevant reports, since the current spread between local government bonds and Treasury bonds is relatively high, both commercial banks and insurance companies can obtain relatively higher returns by investing in local government bonds [81]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - In terms of high - frequency data, last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased by 3.42% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained unchanged at 0.00%, the settlement price of cathode - copper futures decreased by 1.54%, the cement - price index increased by 0.06%, and the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 0.74%. The CCFI index increased by 3.60% and the BDI index increased by 7.02% week - on - week. In terms of food prices, the wholesale price of pork increased by 2.42% and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 1.58% week - on - week. The settlement prices of Brent crude - oil futures and WTI crude - oil futures decreased by 2.60% and 2.54% respectively week - on - week. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB last week was 7.08 [84]. 6. Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue to recover as the suppression from the equity market eases and market forces undergo structural changes. Short - term fluctuations may present good allocation opportunities. It is conservatively estimated that the lower limits of the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds (old bonds) may be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to set the portfolio duration in the medium - to - long range, select high - quality coupon - bearing assets as the bottom - position, and explore the allocation opportunities of 2 - year AA -/AA - rated credit bonds and 10 - year local government bonds. For trading, it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities of medium - duration varieties such as secondary perpetual bonds that have experienced significant declines [87][88][89].
多空因素交织，农商行再入场
Southwest Securities·2025-11-10 07:15