合成橡胶投资周报：低价丁二烯仍为主因，周内BR一度破万-20251110

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is bearish. The significant decline in butadiene prices has deepened market pessimism, causing a sharp drop in the futures price. Attention should be paid to the adjustment rhythm of spot prices and the price guidance of natural rubber [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - Low - priced butadiene is the main factor affecting the market. The sharp decline in butadiene prices has led to a pessimistic market sentiment, and the futures price of butadiene rubber has dropped significantly. Although there are some changes in supply and demand, the overall market is under pressure from cost - side factors [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of November 6, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,200 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's main sales companies was between 10,200 - 10,300 yuan/ton. The listed price of PetroChina's Southwest sales company was 10,600 yuan/ton. This week, although the butadiene rubber plant of Sichuan Petrochemical restarted, due to the impact of the decline in butadiene prices, the ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina's butadiene rubber decreased by 800 yuan/ton, and the price of private resources in Shandong fell below 10,000 yuan/ton [2][5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 10.92 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 4.85%. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 2.69 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of - 6.71%. Some butadiene plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, while some plants like Beifang Huajin and Qilu Petrochemical resumed production. In the butadiene rubber sector, the plant of Sichuan Petrochemical restarted, and those of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical were under maintenance [2]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, the sales of four - season tires were mediocre. The northern market entered the off - season, while the southern market provided some support. In the snow - tire market, the channel inventory was sufficient, waiting for the rise of terminal demand. In the all - steel tire market, the transaction price remained stable. Some manufacturers recovered 1 - 2 points of previous promotional policies in November, and there was a possibility of price increases in the future [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 2.98 million tons, a decrease of 6.88% compared to the previous week. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 2.929 million tons, a decrease of 5.15%. Some butadiene plants resumed production, and the inventory of some suppliers increased. There were imported cargoes arriving at the port, but the short - term tradable volume was limited [2]. 3.3 Price Analysis - The prices of synthetic rubber products such as butadiene, butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber all showed a downward trend. For example, the ex - factory price of butadiene from Dalian Hengli decreased by 900 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, a decline of 12.15% [7]. 3.4 Correlation Analysis - The report provides the correlation coefficient heat maps of the price trends of crude oil, synthetic rubber, and natural rubber - related varieties for 1 - month and 3 - month periods, showing the relationships between different varieties [8]. 3.5 Device Analysis - It details the maintenance and operation status of butadiene and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in China in 2025, including the maintenance time, capacity, and future plans of each plant [9]. 3.6 Transaction Strategy - For single - side trading, there is no recommended strategy. For arbitrage, attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [2].