Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-11-10 07:10Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The swine industry is experiencing accelerated declines in breeding stock, with a reported decrease of 0.77% in October compared to the previous month. The average price of pork in October was 11.69 yuan/kg, down 1.41% month-on-month, indicating a potential ongoing capacity reduction in the industry [5][18] - The policy direction in the industry is shifting towards protecting farmers' rights and stimulating enterprise innovation, suggesting that future growth stocks will focus more on technological content and innovative models [6][19] - The poultry sector is facing a persistent contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," leading to losses that may force breeding farms to reduce production capacity [7][19] - The feed sector is recommended to focus on Hai Da Group due to its management effectiveness and expected growth in production capacity [8][20] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - In October, the breeding stock decreased by 0.77%, with a significant increase in the culling of sows by approximately 12.41%. The industry is expected to enter a phase of active capacity reduction as prices fall below cost levels [5][18] - The government is implementing capacity control measures to stabilize pork prices, which may lead to improved profitability for listed companies as costs decline [6][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The price of chicken chicks in Yantai was reported at 3.50 yuan/chick, down 2.8% month-on-month and 20.5% year-on-year. The price of broiler chickens was 3.45 yuan/kg, also down 2.8% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year [7][19] - The industry is expected to see an increase in market share for integrated enterprises and contract farming due to ongoing losses [7][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report highlights a slight decline in aquatic product prices, with various fish species showing mixed performance in price changes [8][20] - Hai Da Group is recommended for its expected growth and effective management, with a focus on increasing market share and overseas growth [9][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is showing an increase in sales growth compared to September, indicating a trend towards higher market concentration among leading brands [10][22] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with strong brand performance and those actively expanding their domestic market presence [25] 5. Agricultural Products - The report notes that soybean prices have reached new highs, but domestic soybean meal prices remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak downstream purchasing sentiment [14][26] - The rubber market is expected to continue fluctuating, influenced by macroeconomic factors and stable import levels [14][26] 6. Market and Price Situation - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4679, up 0.82% from the previous week, while the Agricultural and Forestry Index closed at 2970, up 0.79% [27][30] - The report indicates that the agricultural sector is experiencing a significant increase in investment value due to its unique characteristics and historical low valuations [14][26]