蛋白数据日报-20251110

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean purchase and shipping profitability is poor. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the short - term domestic futures market is expected to follow the US market and continue to be volatile and slightly stronger. However, the expected global soybean supply surplus situation will limit the rebound height of the futures market. Future drivers depend on the USDA November supply - demand report and South American weather [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - Basis Data: On November 7th, the basis of the main contract of soybean meal in Dalian was 62, down 20; the basis of 43% soybean meal in Tianjin was 2, down 10; in Rizhao it was - 18, down 10; in Zhangjiagang it was 2, up 10; in Dongguan it was - 58, down 10; in Zhanjiang it was - 18; in Fangcheng it was - 38, down 10. The basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 91, up 23 [6]. - Spread Data: The RM1 - 5 spread was 123, down 10; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market in Guangdong was 300, and the spread in the futures market (main contract) was 519, unchanged [7]. 3.2 Supply - related Data - USDA Forecast: The USDA currently estimates the US soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.9%. The expected yield per acre of 33.5 bushels may be lowered, and the export forecast has room for an upward adjustment. The US soybean supply - demand balance is expected to be tight. Attention should be paid to the next USDA supply - demand report [8][9]. - Brazilian Soybean Planting: As of November 1st, according to CONAB data, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 47.1%, up from 34.4% last week, compared with 53.3% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 64.7%. Attention should be paid to the relatively dry weather in Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil in the next few weeks and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern [10]. - Domestic Supply: In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. The purchase progress for the December - January shipping period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [11]. 3.3 Demand - related Data - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The downstream of soybean meal has been cautious in recent transactions, and the pick - up performance has declined [11]. 3.4 Inventory - related Data - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, and inventory is expected to start declining in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [11]. 3.5 Exchange Rate, Basis Price, and Profit - related Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0837, and the futures market profit from importing Brazilian soybeans was 145 yuan/ton [7].