Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate, while having strong support below due to policy protection and abundant macro - liquidity [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and the index fluctuates while having strong support below [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: High prices suppress downstream demand, and market risk preference declines, but the downward space is expected to be limited [1]. - Aluminum: The industrial driving force is limited in the near term, and the price maintains high - level fluctuations [1]. - Alumina: Domestic production capacity continues to be released, production and inventory increase, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to cost support [1]. - Zinc: LME inventory continues to decline, and the risk of cornering the market drives the price up. The price is expected to remain high, but chasing high prices requires caution due to domestic over - supply [1]. - Nickel: The short - term price may rebound with fluctuations, but beware of high inventory suppression. The long - term pattern of primary nickel is over - supply [1]. - Stainless Steel: The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the production schedule in October is stable. The futures price fluctuates at the bottom, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Tin: In the long - term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: They are expected to continue to fluctuate in a range in the short term, with support below. Pay attention to the progress of the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff ruling [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity resumes, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season weakens. Polysilicon production in November decreases [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: It fluctuates. The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is coming, energy storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - Rebar: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the realization of macro - sentiment, pay attention to the upward pressure [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Pay attention to the upward pressure on the price after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month has upward opportunities [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are supportive, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates and the price fluctuates strongly [1]. - Soda Ash: It follows glass, but the supply and demand are average, and the upward resistance of the price is large [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal's trend is tangled near the previous high, and coke's high - point price includes the expectation of five rounds of price increases. The steel - coke game is intense, and the price may return to the shock range [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: It still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports in the short term. A rebound may occur if export data improves in November [1]. - Soybean Oil: The purchase of US soybeans by China may bring a loose expectation, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders brings a relaxation expectation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed presses the price [1]. - Cotton: The new - year cotton demand is uncertain. The downward space of the futures price is limited, but the basis and the futures price may be under pressure [1]. - Sugar: The price has seasonal upward momentum in the short term, but the rebound space is expected to be limited after the new sugar is listed [1]. - Corn: The supply still faces selling pressure, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a medium - to - long - term rebound expected [1]. - Soybeans: The domestic soybean futures are expected to follow the US market and fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the global supply pattern restricts the rebound height [1]. - Paper Pulp: The trading logic is about the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. The downward pressure on the futures price is large, and a 11 - 1 reverse spread is recommended [1]. - Hogs: The futures price follows the spot price and stabilizes and then weakens. There is still pressure on the supply in November [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, geopolitical speculation cools down, and market sentiment eases [1]. - Asphalt: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The profit is relatively high [1]. - BR Rubber: It is bearish. The cost support weakens, and the supply is loose [1]. - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price follows the decline of crude oil, but the cost support from coal strengthens slightly [1]. - Short - Fiber: The price follows the cost closely, and the basis strengthens [1]. - Styrene: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window is closed, and the profit of styrene plants decreases [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment eases, and the upward space is limited, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - PE: The inventory pressure is large under high supply, the maintenance intensity weakens, and the downstream demand increases slowly [1]. - PVC: The supply pressure is large due to reduced maintenance and new production capacity, but the cost support strengthens [1]. - Caustic Soda: There is a risk of cornering the market due to planned alumina production in Guangxi, reduced maintenance concentration, and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic spot market stabilizes [1]. Others - Container Shipping on European Routes: Macro - positive sentiment is digested, the expected price increase in the peak season is pre - priced, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1]
日度策略参考-20251110
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-11-10 07:16