美联储内部意见不统一，沪铜或震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai Copper. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [3][44] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Review - Last week, the main contract CU2512 of Shanghai Copper futures showed a mainly oscillating and weakening trend, with prices ranging from around 84,900 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 87,400 yuan/ton [8] - Last week, LME copper futures prices showed an oscillating and weakening trend, with contract prices ranging from around 10,580 - 10,925 US dollars/ton [11] (2) Macroeconomic Aspect - Fed Governor Milan expects the Fed to cut interest rates in December. He wants to reach the neutral interest rate in steps of 50 basis points, while many colleagues hope to adjust in steps of 25 basis points. CME's "FedWatch" data shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 37.5% [2][14][43] (3) Spot Analysis - As of November 7, 2025, the average price of Shanghai Wumaotong was 85,995 yuan/ton, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 86,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing, and Tianjin were 85,880 yuan/ton, 85,830 yuan/ton, 86,020 yuan/ton, and 85,960 yuan/ton respectively. As of November 7, 2025, the premium or discount of electrolytic copper remained around a decrease of 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [17] (4) Supply and Demand Situation - As of September 2025, China's copper smelter rough smelting fee was - 41.9 US dollars/kiloton, and the refining fee was 4 cents/pound [24] - As of September 2025, the monthly output of automobiles was 3.2265 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. The monthly output of air conditioners was 18.0948 million, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [26] (5) Inventory Situation - As of November 7, 2025, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 115,035 tons, a decrease of 1,105 tons from the previous week. As of November 5, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 133,975 tons, an increase of 75 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 7.99%. As of November 6, 2025, the COMEX copper inventory was 366,419 tons, an increase of 3,051 tons from the previous trading day. As of November 6, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 101,800 tons, the inventory in Guangdong was 19,100 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 46,800 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 1,700 tons from the previous week [33] (6) Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - Fed Governor Milan expects the Fed to cut interest rates in December. He wants to reach the neutral interest rate in steps of 50 basis points, while many colleagues hope to adjust in steps of 25 basis points. CME's "FedWatch" data shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 62.5%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 37.5%. Global copper supply and demand are both at high levels, and the copper supply and demand are basically balanced. The copper smelting processing fee has increased slightly but is still at a historical low. In September, automobile production continued to increase year - on - year, while air conditioner production decreased year - on - year. Shanghai Copper inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory level is at a moderate position in recent years. COMEX copper inventory continued to increase significantly [43] (7) Future Outlook - Copper prices are expected to show a mainly oscillating trend. There are limited arbitrage opportunities for Shanghai Copper. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [3][44]