甲醇周报：基本面依旧偏弱，甲醇或延续弱势-20251110

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of methanol remain weak, and methanol is likely to continue its downward trend. In the short term, the demand for methanol downstream olefins is clearly weak, and there is no expectation of a contraction in domestic supply for the time being. Attention should be paid to import pressure. If the supply and demand remain weak, methanol will still operate weakly. A bear spread strategy can be considered [1][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, the supply and demand of methanol continued to be weak, and methanol futures continued to fall. By the close on Friday afternoon, the weighted methanol closed at 2,133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.82% from the previous week. In the spot market, the high inventory situation at ports continued, and under high supply pressure, the port methanol market continued to decline. Although there was a short - term rebound due to the news of large - scale plant shutdowns inland, the rebound was limited, and the overall port price fluctuated and declined. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,050 to 2,200 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,080 to 2,190 yuan/ton. In the inland market, the supply - demand pattern remained weak. With the sharp decline in the futures market and the continuous back - flow of port goods, market sentiment was significantly impacted. Later in the week, as some plants in the production area shut down and the external procurement demand for olefins increased, the market sentiment improved, and some low - priced goods were withheld from sale, with local prices stopping falling and rebounding. The price in the northern line of Ordos in the main production area ranged from 1,965 to 2,005 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying, a downstream area, ranged from 2,155 to 2,223 yuan/ton [12] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Production - According to Longzhong Information, last week (October 31 - November 6, 2025), China's methanol production was 1,992,055 tons, an increase of 26,860 tons from the previous week. The plant capacity utilization rate was 87.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.36% [15] 2.2 Downstream Demand - As of November 6, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream methanol products were as follows: - Olefins: The load of olefin enterprises in East China was slightly adjusted. The load of Luxi in Shandong was at a low level, while the load of Hengyou in Xinjiang increased. After offsetting, the industry's operation continued to decline. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 82.97%, a decrease of 0.79 percentage points [17] - Dimethyl ether: The capacity utilization rate was 5.79%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%. The Lianxin plant was shut down after a short - term operation, and other plants had no shutdown or maintenance plans. The loss was greater than the recovery, so the overall capacity utilization rate declined [17] - Glacial acetic acid: Last week, the second - phase plant of Huayi in Guangxi malfunctioned and shut down, and Shunda reduced its load. Other plants maintained their previous loads, so the load continued to decline [17] - Chlorides: The operation rate of methane chlorides last week was 63.54%. Although some plants increased their loads, some plants in Luxi, Shandong and Huatai in Dongying shut down, and the plant of Dongyue in Shandong reduced its load. The overall capacity utilization rate still showed a downward trend [19] - Formaldehyde: The operation rate last week was 41.75%. The Wende Cheng plant increased its load, and the recovery was greater than the loss, so the overall capacity utilization rate increased [19] 2.3 Inventory - As of November 5, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 386,400 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.75%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 221,100 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.57% [21] - As of November 5, 2025, the inventory of China's methanol port samples was 1,517,100 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%. The visible unloading of foreign vessels last week was 232,000 tons, and the invisible unloading was 113,800 tons, with some unloading not yet included. The提货 in the Yangtze River area of Jiangsu was weak, while the demand in Zhejiang remained stable. The inventory in South China ports decreased slightly. In Guangdong, both foreign and domestic vessels arrived at the port. With the stable demand of local and surrounding downstream industries, the提货 from mainstream storage areas increased, and the inventory decreased. In Fujian, foreign vessels continued to unload, and there were still some vessels being unloaded not yet included in the inventory. With the rigid demand consumption of downstream industries, the inventory also decreased [23] 2.4 Profit - According to Longzhong Information, last week (October 31 - November 6, 2025), the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples continued to be poor, and the profitability of each route continued to be squeezed. The average weekly profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was - 218.20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 42.06%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 304.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 74.73%; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was - 286.60 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30.99%; the average weekly profit of methanol made from coke oven gas in Hebei was 149.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 27.32%; the average weekly profit of methanol made from natural gas in the southwest was - 314.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20.77%. With the gradual release of seasonal demand, the coal price has gradually risen recently, and the cost of methanol has increased accordingly. In addition, the gas price was raised as scheduled in early November, and the cost pressure of gas - to - methanol has also increased. The weak supply and demand of methanol are prominent, and the overall willingness to hold goods is weak, suppressing the price decline. Therefore, the profitability of methanol production by various processes continues to be squeezed [25] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, there may be more restarts than overhauls of domestic methanol plants. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0084 million tons this week, with a capacity utilization rate of about 88.51%, an increase from last week [30] - Downstream demand for methanol: - Olefins: Hengtong in Shandong is expected to shut down, and the loads of enterprises in the northwest and east are expected to increase. After offsetting, the industry's operation will decline slightly [32] - Dimethyl ether: There are no overhaul plans for dimethyl ether plants this week. If there are no unexpected shutdowns or startups of other plants, the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to remain flat [32] - Glacial acetic acid: It is expected that the Thorpe plant will restart after maintenance this week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase [33] - Formaldehyde: After the restart of the Wende Cheng plant this week, it will continue to operate stably. Other plants have no shutdown or overhaul plans, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly [33] - Chlorides: Some previously shut - down plants may restart this week, and the overall capacity utilization rate may increase [34] - Inventory: The inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 378,700 tons this week, showing a slight de - stocking trend. Some large plants in the production area shut down unexpectedly last week, resulting in a decrease in supply. At the same time, the external procurement demand for olefins provided support, and enterprises in most regions sold goods at a discount, driving an improvement in signing. Under the combined effect of supply and demand factors, it is expected that the inventory of sample enterprises will decrease slightly this week. In terms of port inventory, it is expected that the visible unloading volume of foreign vessels will be high, and the port methanol inventory may continue to accumulate next week. The unloading speed of foreign vessels should be specifically monitored. Overall, the supply and demand of methanol remain loose, there is no substantial positive driving force for the fundamentals, and methanol is likely to remain weak in the short term [34]